nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
BALLOT MEASURE · ARIZONA · 3 NOV 2026

HCR 2003 (transgender school and athletic access)

TruthIndex™
60.5%Lean YesChance it passes, −3.5 pts in 30 days
Yes 60.5%No 39.5%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 60.5%Oct 16, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

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