nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
BALLOT MEASURE · CALIFORNIA · 3 NOV 2026

Prop 40 wealth tax defeats Props 41 and 42 (compound)

TruthIndex™
13.5%Likely NoChance it passes, −29.5 pts in 30 days
Yes 13.5%No 86.5%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 13.5%Oct 16, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

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