BALLOT MEASURE · CALIFORNIA · 3 NOV 2026

Proposition 2 (rainy day fund)

IMPLIED PROBABILITY

77.0%Likely YesChance it passes, +7.3 pts in 30 days

Yes 77.0%No 23.0%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 71.0% (not counted) · Kalshi 77.0% (one-sided)Oct 16, 2026, 3:12 PM ET