nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
BALLOT MEASURE · CALIFORNIA · 3 NOV 2026

Proposition 4 (public campaign financing)

IMPLIED PROBABILITY
45.0%Toss-upChance it passes, +1.3 pts in 30 days
Yes 45.0%No 55.0%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 46.0% (not counted) · Kalshi 45.0% (one-sided)Oct 16, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

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