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BALLOT MEASURE · CALIFORNIA · 3 NOV 2026

Proposition 5 (recall election reform)

IMPLIED PROBABILITY
49.0%Toss-upChance it passes, −10.7 pts in 30 days
Yes 49.0%No 51.0%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 31.5% (not counted) · Kalshi 49.0% (one-sided)Oct 16, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

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