nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
BALLOT MEASURE · CALIFORNIA · 3 NOV 2026

Voter ID initiative

TruthIndex™
26.3%Lean NoChance it passes, −9.0 pts in 30 days
Yes 26.3%No 73.7%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 27.0% · Kalshi 26.0% · 1.0 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

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