BALLOT MEASURE · VIRGINIA · 3 NOV 2026
Question 1 (reproductive freedom)
TruthIndex™
89.0%Likely YesChance it passes, −2.4 pts in 30 days
Yes 89.0%No 11.0%
Probability implied by prediction-market prices
18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAYProbability implied by prediction-market prices
Polymarket 89.0% · Kalshi 91.3% · 2.3 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 3:12 PM ET