nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
BALLOT MEASURE · WASHINGTON · 3 NOV 2026

Initiative IL26-638 (transgender school sports access)

TruthIndex™
44.0%Toss-upChance it passes, −0.5 pts in 30 days
Yes 44.0%No 56.0%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 54.0% (not counted) · Kalshi 44.0%Oct 16, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

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