nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
AR-02 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

French Hill (R) to win

TruthIndex™
83.3%Likely R+1.0 pts in 30 days
Hill (R) 83.3%Jones (D) 16.8%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 83.0% · Kalshi 83.5% · 0.5 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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