AZ-04 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026
Greg Stanton (D) to win
TruthIndex™
95.4%Safe D+0.9 pts in 30 days
Stanton (D) 95.4%Jasser (R) 5.1%
Probability implied by prediction-market prices
18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAYProbability implied by prediction-market prices
Polymarket 96.0% · Kalshi 95.1% · 1.1 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:34 PM ET