AZ-09 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026
Paul Gosar (R) to win
TruthIndex™
94.6%Safe R+0.4 pts in 30 days
Gosar (R) 94.6%Sterbinsky (D) 3.6%
Probability implied by prediction-market prices
18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAYProbability implied by prediction-market prices
Polymarket 94.5% · Kalshi 95.9% · 1.4 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET