CA-01 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026
Mike McGuire (D) to win
TruthIndex™
94.7%Safe D−1.9 pts in 30 days
McGuire (D) 94.7%Gallagher (R) 3.7%
Probability implied by prediction-market prices
18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAYProbability implied by prediction-market prices
Polymarket 95.0% · Kalshi 94.1% · 0.9 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET