CA-09 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026
Josh Harder (D) to win
TruthIndex™
97.2%Safe D+3.2 pts in 30 days
Harder (D) 97.2%McBride (R) 2.2%
Probability implied by prediction-market prices
18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAYProbability implied by prediction-market prices
Polymarket 97.5% · Kalshi 97.0% · 1.0 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET