nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
CA-10 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Mark DeSaulnier (D) to win

TruthIndex™
96.6%Safe D−0.1 pts in 30 days
DeSaulnier (D) 96.6%Frese (R) 2.7%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 95.8% · Kalshi 98.0% · 2.2 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET

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