nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
CA-16 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Sam Liccardo (D) to win

TruthIndex™
97.6%Safe D+0.6 pts in 30 days
Liccardo (D) 97.6%Soulé (R) 1.7%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 97.4% · Kalshi 98.0% · 0.7 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET

Keep track of every 2026 race, liveEvery 2026 race, livemidterms.nijinn.io