CA-21 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026
Jim Costa (D) to win
TruthIndex™
94.8%Safe D+1.8 pts in 30 days
Costa (D) 94.8%Kirkland (R) 4.4%
Probability implied by prediction-market prices
18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAYProbability implied by prediction-market prices
Polymarket 95.5% · Kalshi 94.7% · 1.3 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET