nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
CA-23 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Jay Obernolte (R) to win

TruthIndex™
97.6%Safe R+5.1 pts in 30 days
Obernolte (R) 97.6%Hodge (D) 2.0%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 97.7% · Kalshi 97.2% · 0.5 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET

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