nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
CA-33 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Pete Aguilar (D) to win

TruthIndex™
96.1%Safe D+0.7 pts in 30 days
Aguilar (D) 96.1%Vargas (R) 4.4%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 95.8% · Kalshi 96.6% · 2.5 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET

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