nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
CA-45 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Derek Tran (D) to win

TruthIndex™
93.2%Safe D−0.4 pts in 30 days
Tran (D) 93.2%Vo (R) 6.1%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 93.5% · Kalshi 92.9% · 0.6 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET

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