nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
FL-04 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Aaron Bean (R) to win

TruthIndex™
86.4%Likely R−0.8 pts in 30 days
Bean (R) 86.4%Holloway (D) 13.6%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 86.0% · Kalshi 86.5% · 0.5 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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