nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
IA-04 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Chris McGowan (R) to win

TruthIndex™
95.3%Safe R+1.3 pts in 30 days
McGowan (R) 95.3%Dawson (D) 4.4%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 95.0% · Kalshi 95.8% · 1.0 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

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