nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
ID-02 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Mike Simpson (R) to win

TruthIndex™
95.8%Safe R+1.3 pts in 30 days
Simpson (R) 95.8%Gilbreath (D) 3.7%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 95.3% · Kalshi 96.4% · 1.3 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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