nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
IL-04 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Patty Garcia (D) to win

TruthIndex™
96.6%Safe D+2.0 pts in 30 days
Garcia (D) 96.6%Castillo (R) 2.7%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 96.0% · Kalshi 97.5% · 1.5 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Keep track of every 2026 race, liveEvery 2026 race, livemidterms.nijinn.io