nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
IL-06 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Sean Casten (D) to win

TruthIndex™
96.6%Safe D+0.6 pts in 30 days
Casten (D) 96.6%Conforti (R) 2.4%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 96.2% · Kalshi 97.5% · 1.4 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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