nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
IN-08 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Mark Messmer (R) to win

TruthIndex™
95.3%Safe R−0.7 pts in 30 days
Messmer (R) 95.3%Allen (D) 4.2%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 96.0% · Kalshi 95.2% · 0.9 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

Keep track of every 2026 race, liveEvery 2026 race, livemidterms.nijinn.io