nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
KY-06 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Ralph Alvarado (R) to win

TruthIndex™
68.5%Lean R−6.0 pts in 30 days
Alvarado (R) 68.5%Dembo (D) 31.9%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 65.5% · Kalshi 69.5% · 4.0 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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