nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
MA-04 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Jake Auchincloss (D) to win

TruthIndex™
97.6%Safe D+0.3 pts in 30 days
Auchincloss (D) 97.6%Stalcup (R) 1.5%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 97.2% · Kalshi 97.7% · 0.5 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

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