nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
MD-04 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Glenn Ivey (D) to win

TruthIndex™
98.4%Safe D+1.3 pts in 30 days
Ivey (D) 98.4%McDermott (R) 1.1%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 97.5% · Kalshi 98.9% · 1.3 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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