MS-04 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026
Mike Ezell (R) to win
TruthIndex™
96.2%Safe R−0.1 pts in 30 days
Ezell (R) 96.2%III (D) 3.6%
Probability implied by prediction-market prices
18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAYProbability implied by prediction-market prices
Polymarket 95.8% · Kalshi 97.5% · 1.8 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET