nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
NC-03 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Greg Murphy (R) to win

TruthIndex™
84.3%Likely R−2.7 pts in 30 days
Murphy (R) 84.3%Jr. (D) 15.8%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 83.5% · Kalshi 84.5% · 1.0 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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