nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
NY-12 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Micah Lasher (D) to win

TruthIndex™
98.1%Safe D+0.7 pts in 30 days
Lasher (D) 98.1%Shinkle (R) 1.1%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 97.3% · Kalshi 98.9% · 1.6 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

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