nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
NY-20 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Paul Tonko (D) to win

TruthIndex™
97.3%Safe D+1.7 pts in 30 days
Tonko (D) 97.3%Ambrosio (R) 2.5%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 97.2% · Kalshi 97.6% · 0.7 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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