nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
PA-08 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Paige Cognetti (D) to win

TruthIndex™
72.8%Lean D+8.8 pts in 30 days
Cognetti (D) 72.8%Bresnahan (R) 27.4%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 72.0% · Kalshi 73.5% · 2.0 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

Keep track of every 2026 race, liveEvery 2026 race, livemidterms.nijinn.io