nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
PA-11 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Lloyd Smucker (R) to win

TruthIndex™
94.9%Safe R−1.1 pts in 30 days
Smucker (R) 94.9%Mannion (D) 4.4%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 94.9% · Kalshi 95.2% · 0.4 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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