nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
TX-04 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Pat Fallon (R) to win

TruthIndex™
95.9%Safe R+2.1 pts in 30 days
Fallon (R) 95.9%Pearce (D) 0.9%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 95.5% · Kalshi 96.6% · 1.1 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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