nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
TX-20 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Joaquin Castro (D) to win

TruthIndex™
96.1%Safe D+1.5 pts in 30 days
Castro (D) 96.1%Baez (R) 3.0%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 96.1% · Kalshi 96.5% · 0.5 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET

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