nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
TX-32 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Jace Yarbrough (R) to win

TruthIndex™
85.9%Likely R−1.3 pts in 30 days
Yarbrough (R) 85.9%Barrios (D) 14.3%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 85.5% · Kalshi 86.0% · 1.1 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET

Keep track of every 2026 race, liveEvery 2026 race, livemidterms.nijinn.io