nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
UT-04 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Mike Kennedy (R) to win

TruthIndex™
95.3%Safe R+1.0 pts in 30 days
Kennedy (R) 95.3%Larsen (D) 4.3%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 95.2% · Kalshi 96.4% · 1.2 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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