nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
VA-02 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Elaine Luria (D) to win

TruthIndex™
86.5%Likely D+5.5 pts in 30 days
Luria (D) 86.5%Kiggans (R) 13.2%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 87.5% · Kalshi 85.5% · 2.0 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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