nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
VA-05 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

John McGuire (R) to win

TruthIndex™
71.5%Lean R−13.2 pts in 30 days
McGuire (R) 71.5%Perriello (D) 29.0%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 70.5% · Kalshi 72.5% · 2.0 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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