nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
WA-05 HOUSE · 3 NOV 2026

Michael Baumgartner (R) to win

TruthIndex™
85.3%Likely R+3.3 pts in 30 days
Baumgartner (R) 85.3%Conroy (D) 15.0%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 84.5% · Kalshi 86.5% · 2.3 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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