nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
ARKANSAS SENATE · 3 NOV 2026

Tom Cotton (R) to win

TruthIndex™
94.6%Safe R+0.7 pts in 30 days
Cotton (R) 94.6%Shoffner (D) 5.9%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 94.6% · Kalshi 94.5% · 0.3 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

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