nijinn18 DAYS TO ELECTION DAY
TEXAS SENATE · 3 NOV 2026

James Talarico (D) to win

TruthIndex™
61.7%Lean D+6.7 pts in 30 days
Talarico (D) 61.7%Paxton (R) 39.0%

Probability implied by prediction-market prices

Polymarket 62.5% · Kalshi 61.5% · 2.0 pts apartOct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET

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