nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
3 November 2026

Chamber outlook

Markets on the overall result: balance of power, seat counts, governorships, the national popular vote and wave elections. The two venues word these questions and set their ranges differently, so each venue's market is shown on its own.

Most likely control · TruthIndex™Democrats sweep62.4%Kalshi 61.5% · Polymarket 62.5%Senate seats, medianRepublican seats
Kalshi48
Polymarket48
House seats, medianRepublican seats
Kalshi198–202
Polymarket200–204
Governorships, medianRepublican governors
Polymarket22–23
House popular vote, medianMargin, points
KalshiD 8–10
PolymarketD 8–10
Wave electionsBlue wave
Kalshi79.5%
Polymarket83.5%

The median is the range where a venue's prices, added up from the lowest range, pass half.

Balance of power in Congress

Which party controls each chamber after the midterms.

How to read this chart

Each box is one way control of Congress could split after the election. The row gives the party that wins the Senate, and the column gives the party that wins the House. The large figure is the chance of that result from the TruthIndex™; the smaller figures are each venue's own price. Where no TruthIndex™ can be calculated, the box shows the venue prices only.

A highlighted box is a result the market gives a 50% chance or more.

More in Methodology
House: Democrats
House: Republicans
Senate: Democrats
Democrats sweep
62.4%TruthIndex™
Kalshi 61.5% · Polymarket 62.5%
Democratic Senate, Republican House
0.8%TruthIndex™
Kalshi 0.8% · Polymarket 0.9%
Senate: Republicans
Republican Senate, Democratic House
27.7%TruthIndex™
Kalshi 30.5% · Polymarket 27.5%
Republicans sweep
9.9%TruthIndex™
Kalshi 10.5% · Polymarket 9.5%

Kalshi: 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?, 40.7M contracts · Polymarket: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms, $24.3M traded. Also priced: Other 0.1% (Polymarket).

Senate seats after the midterms

How many Senate seats each party holds after the midterms.

How to read this chart

This chart shows one venue's market. Each bar is a range of results, such as a number of seats. Its height and its number give the venue's price for that range, which reads as a percentage chance. The colour shows which party comes out ahead in that range. The vertical line marks where control changes hands, or a tie for the popular vote, and a grey bar is a range that crosses it.

The bar with the dark outline is the median: the chances of a lower or a higher result each add up to about half. Each venue defines its ranges differently, so the two venues are shown side by side.

More in Methodology

Kalshi2.6M contracts

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Median outcome 48 Republican seats

50 for controlBelow 45: 9.5% 9.5 <4545: 7.5% 7.5 4546: 8.5% 8.5 4647: 13.5% 14 4748: 15.0% 15 4849: 12.5% 13 4950: 13.0% 13 5051: 8.0% 8.0 5152: 5.5% 5.5 5253: 4.5% 4.5 5354: 2.5% 2.5 5455: 2.5% 2.5 5556: 1.0% 1.0 5657: 1.0% 1.0 57Above 57: 2.5% 2.5 58+
  • Republican control: 50 or more, with the Vice President's tiebreak at 50
  • Democratic control: Republicans at 49 or fewer
  • Median
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$3.2M traded

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Median outcome 48 Republican seats

50 for control≤47: 38.5% 39 <4848: 16.5% 17 4849: 12.5% 13 4950: 12.5% 13 5051: 9.0% 9.0 5152: 6.0% 6.0 5253: 3.5% 3.5 5354: 2.6% 2.6 5455: 1.2% 1.2 5556: 0.5% 0.5 5657+: 0.5% 0.5 57+
  • Republican control: 50 or more, with the Vice President's tiebreak at 50
  • Democratic control: Republicans at 49 or fewer
  • Median
Source: Polymarket market
More markets (2)

Kalshi4.7M contracts

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Median outcome 51 Democratic seats

51 for controlBelow 45: 2.6% 2.6 <4545: 2.3% 2.3 4546: 2.8% 2.8 4647: 4.3% 4.3 4748: 6.8% 6.8 4849: 8.3% 8.3 4950: 12.5% 13 5051: 12.5% 13 5152: 16.5% 17 52Above 52: 35.5% 36 53+
  • Democratic control: 51 or more
  • Republican control: Democrats at 50 or fewer, with the Vice President's tiebreak at 50
  • Median
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi465.7K contracts

How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)

Median outcome <53 Democratic seats

51 for controlBelow 53: 64.0% 64 <5353: 13.0% 13 5354: 9.7% 9.7 5455: 6.7% 6.7 5556: 3.3% 3.3 5657: 2.2% 2.2 57Above 57: 2.1% 2.1 58+
  • Democratic control: 51 or more
  • Range spans the line
  • Median
Source: Kalshi market

House seats after the midterms

How many House seats each party holds after the midterms.

How to read this chart

This chart shows one venue's market. Each bar is a range of results, such as a number of seats. Its height and its number give the venue's price for that range, which reads as a percentage chance. The colour shows which party comes out ahead in that range. The vertical line marks where control changes hands, or a tie for the popular vote, and a grey bar is a range that crosses it.

The bar with the dark outline is the median: the chances of a lower or a higher result each add up to about half. Each venue defines its ranges differently, so the two venues are shown side by side.

More in Methodology

Kalshi4.2M contracts

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Median outcome 198–202 Republican seats

218 for a majorityBelow 193: 30.5% 31 <193193-197: 15.5% 16 193–197198-202: 14.5% 15 198–202203-207: 14.5% 15 203–207208-212: 8.8% 8.8 208–212213-217: 7.6% 7.6 213–217218-222: 5.0% 5.0 218–222223-227: 2.6% 2.6 223–227228-232: 1.7% 1.7 228–232233-237: 1.5% 1.5 233–237Above 237: 1.5% 1.5 238+
  • Republican majority
  • Republican seats short of a majority
  • Median
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$332.2K traded

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Median outcome 200–204 Republican seats

218 for a majorityBelow 190: 24.0% 24 <190190-194: 13.5% 14 190–194195-199: 10.0% 10 195–199200-204: 10.1% 10 200–204205-209: 24.0% 24 205–209210-214: 5.2% 5.2 210–214215-219: 5.5% 5.5 215–219220-224: 2.3% 2.3 220–224225-229: 0.9% 0.9 225–229230+: 1.4% 1.4 230+
  • Republican majority
  • Republican seats short of a majority
  • Range spans the line
  • Median
Source: Polymarket market
More markets (1)

Kalshi3.1M contracts

How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Median outcome 234–237 Democratic seats

218 for a majorityBelow 210: 4.2% 4.2 <210210-213: 2.1% 2.1 210–213214-217: 2.9% 2.9 214–217218-221: 5.0% 5.0 218–221222-225: 7.1% 7.1 222–225226-229: 11.5% 12 226–229230-233: 15.5% 16 230–233234-237: 17.5% 18 234–237238-241: 13.5% 14 238–241242-245: 9.0% 9.0 242–245246-249: 6.7% 6.7 246–249Above 249: 11.5% 12 250+
  • Democratic majority
  • Democratic seats short of a majority
  • Median
Source: Kalshi market

Governorships after the midterms

How many governorships Republicans hold after the midterms.

How to read this chart

This chart shows one venue's market. Each bar is a range of results, such as a number of seats. Its height and its number give the venue's price for that range, which reads as a percentage chance. The colour shows which party comes out ahead in that range. The vertical line marks where control changes hands, or a tie for the popular vote, and a grey bar is a range that crosses it.

The bar with the dark outline is the median: the chances of a lower or a higher result each add up to about half. Each venue defines its ranges differently, so the two venues are shown side by side.

More in Methodology

Polymarket$705.6K traded

How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?

Median outcome 22–23 Republican governors

<22: 21.0% 21 <2222–23: 30.5% 31 22–2324–25: 27.5% 28 24–2526–27: 12.0% 12 26–2728–29: 2.5% 2.5 28–2930–31: 0.6% 0.6 30–3132+: 1.0% 1.0 32+
  • Median
Source: Polymarket market

Wave elections

Whether the midterms produce a wave, as each venue defines it.

MarketKalshiPolymarket
Blue wave79.5%83.5%
Blue tsunami46.5%50.0%
Democratic mega tsunami20.5%–
Red wave7.0%–

Each venue sets its own threshold for a wave or a tsunami; the market rules are on each venue's page.