Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

3 November 2026

2026 elections by state

Every Senate, governor and House race, ballot measure and mayoral contest in each state, priced on Polymarket and Kalshi. The map counts each state's competitive races: Senate, governor, House and mayoral races rated Toss-up or Lean, with the leader under 75%.

44 competitive races · most in Florida (7)

Where the races are close

Share: Competitive races map

Map of competitive 2026 races by state: 44 Senate, governor, House and mayoral races rated Toss-up or Lean, the most in Florida (7).

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<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/state-map/embed.html" title="Competitive races by state: live from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;aspect-ratio:1200/630;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/state/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=state-map#map">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/state/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=state-map#map"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/state-map/card-landscape.png" alt="Map of competitive 2026 races by state: 44 Senate, governor, House and mayoral races rated Toss-up or Lean, the most in Florida (7)." width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

How to read this chart

Each state is shaded by how many competitive races it has. A competitive race is a Senate, governor, House or mayoral race rated Toss-up or Lean, which means the leader has less than a 75% chance. The darker the state, the more close races it has, and the number on the state is the count. Select a state to see its races.

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Alabama Senate · Governor · 7 House · 4 measures GovernorSafe RRTommy Tuberville 93.5% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race AK

Alaska Senate · Governor · 1 House · 2 measures SenateLean DDMary Peltola 73.5% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race AZ

Arizona Governor · 9 House · 9 measures GovernorLikely DDKatie Hobbs 88.5% TruthIndex™ No competitive race AR

Arkansas Senate · Governor · 4 House · 4 measures SenateSafe RRTom Cotton 94.6% TruthIndex™ No competitive race CA

California Governor · 52 House · 15 measures · 2 mayors GovernorSafe DDXavier Becerra 95.9% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race CO

Colorado Senate · Governor · 8 House · 14 measures GovernorSafe DDPhil Weiser 96.8% TruthIndex™ 2 competitive races CT

Connecticut Governor · 5 House GovernorSafe DDNed Lamont 96.2% TruthIndex™ No competitive race DE

Delaware Senate · 1 House SenateSafe DDDemocrat 98.4% TruthIndex™ No competitive race FL

Florida Senate · Governor · 28 House · 3 measures · 2 mayors GovernorLikely RRByron Donalds 78.7% TruthIndex™ 7 competitive races GA

Georgia Senate · Governor · 14 House · 3 measures GovernorToss-upRRick Jackson 51.9% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race HI

Hawaii Governor · 2 House · 2 measures GovernorSafe DDJosh Green 98.7% TruthIndex™ No competitive race ID

Idaho Senate · Governor · 2 House · 3 measures SenateSafe RRJim Risch 95.4% TruthIndex™ No competitive race IL

Illinois Senate · Governor · 17 House GovernorSafe DDJB Pritzker 96.8% TruthIndex™ No competitive race IN

Indiana 9 House · 2 measures MeasureLikely YesYes 79.5% TruthIndex™ No competitive race IA

Iowa Senate · Governor · 4 House · 1 measure SenateToss-upRAshley Hinson 57.1% TruthIndex™ 2 competitive races KS

Kansas Senate · Governor · 4 House · 1 measure SenateLean RRRoger Marshall 64.1% TruthIndex™ 2 competitive races KY

Kentucky Senate · 6 House · 1 measure · 2 mayors SenateSafe RRAndy Barr 96.7% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race LA

Louisiana Senate · 6 House · 10 measures SenateSafe RRJulia Letlow 93.6% TruthIndex™ No competitive race ME

Maine Senate · Governor · 2 House SenateToss-upDTroy Jackson 57.2% TruthIndex™ 2 competitive races MD

Maryland Governor · 8 House · 3 measures GovernorSafe DDWes Moore 97.1% TruthIndex™ No competitive race MA

Massachusetts Senate · Governor · 9 House · 9 measures GovernorSafe DDMaura Healey 95.1% TruthIndex™ No competitive race MI

Michigan Senate · Governor · 13 House · 1 mayor SenateLean DDAbdul El-Sayed 68.5% TruthIndex™ 4 competitive races MN

Minnesota Senate · Governor · 8 House · 1 measure SenateLikely DDPeggy Flanagan 86.7% TruthIndex™ No competitive race MS

Mississippi Senate · 4 House SenateLikely RRCindy Hyde-Smith 89.5% TruthIndex™ No competitive race MO

Missouri 8 House · 4 measures MeasureToss-upYes 54.0% TruthIndex™ No competitive race MT

Montana Senate · 2 House · 3 measures SenateSafe RRKurt Alme 90.2% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race NE

Nebraska Senate · Governor · 3 House · 4 measures SenateLean RRPete Ricketts 73.2% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race NV

Nevada Governor · 4 House · 2 measures · 3 mayors GovernorToss-upDAaron Ford 54.3% TruthIndex™ 2 competitive races NH

New Hampshire Senate · Governor · 2 House · 1 measure SenateLikely DDChris Pappas 89.2% TruthIndex™ No competitive race NJ

New Jersey Senate · 12 House SenateSafe DDCory Booker 96.8% TruthIndex™ No competitive race NM

New Mexico Senate · Governor · 3 House · 7 measures GovernorSafe DDDeb Haaland 94.1% TruthIndex™ No competitive race NY

New York Governor · 26 House GovernorSafe DDKathy Hochul 94.5% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race NC

North Carolina Senate · 14 House · 3 measures SenateSafe DDRoy Cooper 95.4% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race ND

North Dakota 1 House · 2 measures MeasureToss-upYes 57.0% TruthIndex™ No competitive race OH

Ohio Senate · Governor · 15 House · 1 measure SenateLean DDSherrod Brown 64.0% TruthIndex™ 4 competitive races OK

Oklahoma Senate · Governor · 5 House · 2 measures GovernorSafe RRMike Mazzei 90.5% TruthIndex™ No competitive race OR

Oregon Senate · Governor · 6 House GovernorLikely DDTina Kotek 75.5% TruthIndex™ No competitive race PA

Pennsylvania Governor · 17 House GovernorSafe DDJosh Shapiro 97.8% TruthIndex™ 2 competitive races RI

Rhode Island Senate · Governor · 2 House · 5 measures · 1 mayor GovernorSafe DDHelena Foulkes 95.3% TruthIndex™ No competitive race SC

South Carolina Senate · Governor · 7 House SenateLikely RRDarline Graham Nordone 85.5% TruthIndex™ 1 competitive race SD

South Dakota Senate · Governor · 1 House · 4 measures SenateSafe RRMike Rounds 91.2% TruthIndex™ No competitive race TN

Tennessee Senate · Governor · 9 House · 3 measures GovernorSafe RRMarsha Blackburn 92.0% TruthIndex™ No competitive race TX

Texas Senate · Governor · 38 House · 1 measure SenateLean DDJames Talarico 61.7% TruthIndex™ 3 competitive races UT

Utah 4 House · 2 measures MeasureLean YesYes 65.0% TruthIndex™ No competitive race VT

Vermont Governor · 1 House · 2 measures GovernorLikely RRPhil Scott 76.3% TruthIndex™ No competitive race VA

Virginia Senate · 11 House · 3 measures SenateSafe DDMark Warner 97.8% TruthIndex™ 2 competitive races WA

Washington 10 House · 3 measures MeasureToss-upYes 48.0% TruthIndex™ No competitive race WV

West Virginia Senate · 2 House · 1 measure SenateSafe RRShelley Moore Capito 98.0% TruthIndex™ No competitive race WI

Wisconsin Governor · 8 House · 3 measures GovernorLikely DDDavid Crowley 80.5% TruthIndex™ 2 competitive races WY

Wyoming Senate · Governor · 1 House · 1 measure GovernorSafe RREric Barlow 97.6% TruthIndex™ No competitive race