Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
3 November 2026
Mayoral races 2026
11 mayoral races in 6 states with a market on Polymarket or Kalshi: Flint, Henderson, Lexington, Los Angeles, Louisville, North Las Vegas, Oakland, Providence, Reno, St. Petersburg, Tallahassee.
Closest race · TruthIndex™53.6%Los Angeles: Nithya Raman
Toss-ups2leader under 60%
On both venues6 / 11races in 6 states
Widest venue gap2.6 ptsTallahasseeHow to read this chart
The bar holds every race on this page, grouped by rating. Each coloured block is one rating, and its width shows how many races have it. Democratic ratings are on the left, toss-ups in the middle and Republican ratings on the right; races led by neither party, or with no price, come last. The key below gives each count.
More in Methodology- Toss-up 2
- Likely, no party label 5
- Safe, no party label 4
11 races
Every race
California
Los Angeles MayorToss-up
Runoff on Nov 3
TruthIndex™
Nithya Raman
53.6%
Karen Bass
46.5%
Polymarket 54.4% · Kalshi 53.5% · 0.9 pts apart
Polymarket $4.2M traded · Kalshi 40.2M contracts
Oakland MayorSafe
TruthIndex™
Barbara Lee
92.0%
Brenda Grisham
6.0%
Polymarket 92.0% · Kalshi 92.0% · 0.0 pts apart
Polymarket $2.0K traded · Kalshi 3.2K contracts
Florida
Tallahassee MayorToss-up
First round Aug 18; runoff Nov 3 if required
TruthIndex™
Loranne Ausley
54.0%
Jeremy Matlow
46.7%
Polymarket 54.5% · Kalshi 53.0% · 2.6 pts apart
Polymarket $146.0K traded · Kalshi 14.9K contracts
St. Petersburg MayorSafe
First round Aug 18; runoff Nov 3 if required
TruthIndex™
Charlie Crist
90.1%
Ken Welch
9.1%
Polymarket 90.0% · Kalshi 91.5% · 1.5 pts apart
Polymarket $57.3K traded · Kalshi 16.3K contracts
Kentucky
Michigan
Nevada
North Las Vegas MayorLikely
TruthIndex™
Daniele Monroe-Moreno
81.0%
Scott Black
15.0%
Polymarket 81.0%
Polymarket $7.1K traded
Henderson MayorLikely
TruthIndex™
Michelle Romero
82.5%
Hollie Chadwick
17.4%
Polymarket 82.5%
Polymarket $9.4K traded
Reno MayorLikely
TruthIndex™
Kate Marshall
89.7%
Kathleen Taylor
7.9%
Polymarket 89.5% · Kalshi 92.0% · 2.5 pts apart
Polymarket $16.3K traded · Kalshi 387 contracts
Table view
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Runoff on Nov 3 |
Nithya Raman | Toss-up | 53.6% | 54.4% | 53.5% | 0.9 pts | – | −2.3 | 44.4M | ||
| Tallahassee First round Aug 18; runoff Nov 3 if required |
Loranne Ausley | Toss-up | 54.0% | 54.5% | 53.0% | 2.6 pts | – | +2.5 | 160.9K | ||
| North Las Vegas | Daniele Monroe-Moreno | Likely | 81.0% Polymarket only |
81.0% | – | – | – | 0.0 | 7.1K | ||
| Lexington | Linda Gorton | Likely | 81.5% Polymarket only |
81.5% | – | – | – | +2.5 | 20.8K | ||
| Henderson | Michelle Romero | Likely | 82.5% Polymarket only |
82.5% | – | – | – | 0.0 | 9.4K | ||
| Flint | Sheldon Neeley | Likely | 85.0% Kalshi only |
– | 85.0% | – | – | +2.5 | 585 | ||
| Reno | Kate Marshall | Likely | 89.7% | 89.5% | 92.0% | 2.5 pts | – | −0.3 | 16.7K | ||
| St. Petersburg First round Aug 18; runoff Nov 3 if required |
Charlie Crist | Safe | 90.1% | 90.0% | 91.5% | 1.5 pts | – | +2.1 | 73.6K | ||
| Louisville | Craig Greenberg | Safe | 91.9% | 91.5% | 92.5% | 2.0 pts | – | −0.3 | 22.9K | ||
| Oakland | Barbara Lee | Safe | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | 0.0 pts | – | 0.0 | 5.2K | ||
| Providence | David Morales | Safe | 98.5% Kalshi only |
– | 98.5% | – | – | −1.0 | 261.3K |
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET · Cards grouped by state; the table is sorted by TruthIndex™, closest race first · Card volume shown per venue; the table combines Polymarket USD and Kalshi contracts