Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

3 November 2026

House 2026

All 435 districts. Democrats are favored in 229, Republicans in 200; 6 are toss-ups.

House control · TruthIndex™90.4%Democrats · Polymarket 90.5% · Kalshi 90.1%

Favored229 · 200D · R, rated Lean or safer

Toss-ups6leader under 60%

How to read this chart

The bar holds every race on this page, grouped by rating. Each coloured block is one rating, and its width shows how many races have it. Democratic ratings are on the left, toss-ups in the middle and Republican ratings on the right; races led by neither party, or with no price, come last. The key below gives each count.

Path to 218

Share: House seats

Half-circle chart of the 435 House seats by rating on the TruthIndex™: Democrats 229, Republicans 200, 6 toss-ups.

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https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/house-balance/

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<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/house-balance/embed.html" title="House seats by rating: live from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;aspect-ratio:1200/630;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-balance#seats">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-balance#seats"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/house-balance/card-landscape.png" alt="Half-circle chart of the 435 House seats by rating on the TruthIndex™: Democrats 229, Republicans 200, 6 toss-ups." width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Democrats have a 90.4% chance to control the House on the TruthIndex™

Polymarket 90.5% · Kalshi 90.1% · 1.0 pts apart

Competitive districts · past 7 days

Biggest moves

Polymarket 69.5% · Kalshi 71.5% · 2.0 pts apart

7 days +7.5 pts for Brandon Herrera

Polymarket 70.5% · Kalshi 72.5% · 2.0 pts apart

7 days −5.9 pts for John McGuire

Polymarket 60.5% · Kalshi 58.5% · 3.0 pts apart

7 days +3.5 pts for Lindsay James

Polymarket 71.5% · Kalshi 74.5% · 3.0 pts apart

7 days +3.2 pts for Lauren Boebert

Polymarket 62.5% · Kalshi 61.5% · 2.0 pts apart

7 days −2.7 pts for Bryan Steil

Polymarket 69.0% · Kalshi 66.5% · 2.5 pts apart

7 days +2.7 pts for Don Davis

By state

Map

How to read this chart

Each small square is one House district, grouped by state. The colour is the district's rating. Blue means a Democrat leads and red means a Republican leads. Darker squares are safer seats, striped squares are Lean, and yellow squares are toss-ups.

Within each state, districts are numbered from the top left, so the first square is District 1. Select a square to open that race, or a state's name to see every race there.

Rating changes

Since Oct 9

IA-01 HouseLikely D → Safe D
VA-05 HouseLikely R → Lean R
NY-03 HouseLikely D → Safe D
TX-28 HouseLikely D → Safe D
NY-21 HouseLean R → Likely R
WA-03 HouseLikely D → Safe D

Show 11 more

MO-02 HouseLean R → Likely R
OH-01 HouseLikely D → Safe D
CO-05 HouseLean R → Likely R
AZ-02 HouseLean R → Likely R
FL-12 HouseLikely R → Safe R
AZ-05 HouseSafe R → Likely R
MI-01 HouseSafe R → Likely R
OH-15 HouseLikely R → Lean R
OK-05 HouseSafe R → Likely R
FL-21 HouseLikely R → Safe R
GA-01 HouseSafe R → Likely R

Toss-up and Lean · 30 districts

Competitive districts

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
MI-04 RBill Huizenga	RBill Huizenga	Toss-up	51.2%	50.5%	53.0%	2.5 pts	–	−0.6	42.2K
FL-22 DPia Dandiya	DPia Dandiya	Toss-up	54.1%	54.0%	54.5%	2.0 pts	–	−0.1	188.2K
VA-01 DShannon Taylor	DShannon Taylor	Toss-up	56.2%	58.0%	55.5%	2.5 pts	–	+0.9	333.3K
NY-17 DCait Conley	DCait Conley	Toss-up	59.3%	58.5%	60.5%	2.0 pts	–	+1.8	375.5K
IA-02 DLindsay James	DLindsay James	Toss-up	59.5%	60.5%	58.5%	3.0 pts	–	+3.5	70.8K
TX-35 DJohnny Garcia	DJohnny Garcia	Toss-up	59.5%	59.0%	60.5%	1.5 pts	–	+1.0	268.1K
WI-01 RBryan Steil	RBryan Steil	Lean R	62.1%	62.5%	61.5%	2.0 pts	–	−2.7	95.5K
MI-07 DWilliam Lawrence	DWilliam Lawrence	Lean D	62.5%	62.5%	62.5%	1.5 pts	–	+1.5	125.2K
ME-02 RPaul LePage	RPaul LePage	Lean R	63.2%	62.5%	64.5%	2.0 pts	–	−1.3	169.0K
PA-01 RBrian Fitzpatrick	RBrian Fitzpatrick	Lean R	63.6%	62.5%	64.5%	2.0 pts	–	+1.1	283.8K
FL-27 RMaría Elvira Salazar	RMaría Elvira Salazar	Lean R	63.7%	62.5%	65.5%	3.0 pts	–	+0.4	139.7K
MI-10 DChristina Hines	DChristina Hines	Lean D	64.8%	64.5%	65.5%	1.0 pts	–	−0.2	33.0K
FL-07 RRyan Elijah	RRyan Elijah	Lean R	65.4%	64.5%	66.5%	2.0 pts	–	−1.1	69.4K
NC-01 DDon Davis	DDon Davis	Lean D	67.2%	69.0%	66.5%	2.5 pts	–	+2.7	181.4K
KY-06 RRalph Alvarado	RRalph Alvarado	Lean R	68.4%	65.5%	69.5%	4.0 pts	–	−0.4	185.4K
FL-14 DKathy Castor	DKathy Castor	Lean D	68.5%	69.5%	68.0%	1.5 pts	–	+2.0	367.7K
MT-01 RAaron Flint	RAaron Flint	Lean R	68.6%	67.5%	69.5%	2.0 pts	–	+1.6	571.3K
FL-09 RDan Green	RDan Green	Lean R	70.0%	69.5%	70.5%	1.0 pts	–	−1.3	119.3K
TX-23 RBrandon Herrera	RBrandon Herrera	Lean R	70.0%	69.5%	71.5%	2.0 pts	–	+7.5	359.4K
AL-02 RRhett Marques	RRhett Marques	Lean R	70.7%	69.5%	73.5%	4.0 pts	–	−2.3	289.7K
SC-01 RJenny Costa Honeycutt	RJenny Costa Honeycutt	Lean R	71.1%	69.5%	72.5%	3.0 pts	–	+1.6	271.3K
VA-05 RJohn McGuire	RJohn McGuire	Lean R	71.6%	70.5%	72.5%	2.0 pts	–	−5.9	344.0K
CO-03 RJeff Hurd	RJeff Hurd	Lean R	71.8%	72.5%	70.5%	2.0 pts	–	−0.7	91.2K
OH-09 DMarcy Kaptur	DMarcy Kaptur	Lean D	72.0%	71.5%	72.0%	1.0 pts	–	−1.0	139.9K
PA-08 DPaige Cognetti	DPaige Cognetti	Lean D	72.8%	72.0%	73.5%	2.0 pts	–	+0.3	203.2K
CO-04 RLauren Boebert	RLauren Boebert	Lean R	72.9%	71.5%	74.5%	3.0 pts	–	+3.2	221.6K
NV-02 RDavid Flippo	RDavid Flippo	Lean R	73.3%	73.0%	73.5%	1.5 pts	–	+0.3	130.1K
FL-13 RAnna Paulina Luna	RAnna Paulina Luna	Lean R	74.1%	73.5%	74.5%	1.0 pts	–	+0.6	61.0K
OH-15 RMike Carey	RMike Carey	Lean R	74.2%	73.0%	74.5%	1.5 pts	–	−0.8	46.4K
WI-03 DRebecca Cooke	DRebecca Cooke	Lean D	74.5%	74.0%	74.5%	0.5 pts	–	+1.5	147.9K

435 districts in 50 states

All districts by state

Find a district Venues 435 of 435

Alabama7 districtsD 1 · R 6

Every race in Alabama

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
AL-02 RRhett Marques	RRhett Marques	Lean R	70.7%	69.5%	73.5%	4.0 pts	–	−2.3	289.7K
AL-05 RDale Strong	RDale Strong	Safe R	95.9%	95.5%	96.3%	0.8 pts	–	+0.3	72.6K
AL-01 RJerry Carl	RJerry Carl	Safe R	96.1%	95.5%	97.2%	1.7 pts	–	−0.7	51.4K
AL-06 RGary Palmer	RGary Palmer	Safe R	97.2%	96.2%	98.8%	2.6 pts	–	+0.3	28.6K
AL-03 RMike Rogers	RMike Rogers	Safe R	97.9%	97.6%	98.6%	1.1 pts	–	−0.1	60.0K
AL-07 DTerri Sewell	DTerri Sewell	Safe D	97.9%	97.8%	99.1%	1.3 pts	–	−0.2	108.3K
AL-04 RRobert Aderholt	RRobert Aderholt	Safe R	98.1%	98.6%	97.8%	0.8 pts	–	−0.1	41.1K

Alaska1 districtD 0 · R 1

Every race in Alaska

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
AK-AL RRepublican Party	RRepublican Party	Likely R	85.9%		83.5%	86.5%	3.0 pts	–	−0.9	130.9K

Arizona9 districtsD 5 · R 4

Every race in Arizona

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
AZ-02 REli Crane	REli Crane	Likely R	75.2%	74.0%	76.5%	2.5 pts	–	+8.2	96.5K
AZ-01 DAmish Shah	DAmish Shah	Likely D	80.3%	81.5%	79.0%	2.5 pts	–	+1.8	207.8K
AZ-06 DJoAnna Mendoza	DJoAnna Mendoza	Likely D	83.9%	83.5%	84.0%	2.0 pts	–	+0.4	43.6K
AZ-08 RAbraham Hamadeh	RAbraham Hamadeh	Likely R	86.3%	86.0%	87.5%	1.5 pts	–	+1.8	24.9K
AZ-05 RMark Lamb	RMark Lamb	Likely R	89.6%	89.5%	90.1%	0.6 pts	–	−2.6	66.2K
AZ-09 RPaul Gosar	RPaul Gosar	Safe R	94.7%	94.5%	96.1%	1.6 pts	–	0.0	40.7K
AZ-04 DGreg Stanton	DGreg Stanton	Safe D	95.4%	96.0%	95.1%	1.0 pts	–	−1.2	52.4K
AZ-07 DAdelita Grijalva	DAdelita Grijalva	Safe D	98.7%	99.0%	98.5%	0.5 pts	–	+0.1	40.6K
AZ-03 DYassamin Ansari	DYassamin Ansari	Safe D	98.7%	99.0%	98.6%	0.6 pts	–	0.0	53.6K

Arkansas4 districtsD 0 · R 4

Every race in Arkansas

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
AR-02 RFrench Hill	RFrench Hill	Likely R	83.1%	82.5%	83.5%	1.0 pts	–	+0.6	92.9K
AR-03 RSteve Womack	RSteve Womack	Safe R	94.2%	94.1%	96.4%	2.3 pts	–	−1.5	41.2K
AR-04 RBruce Westerman	RBruce Westerman	Safe R	97.7%	96.5%	98.7%	2.2 pts	–	−0.6	29.4K
AR-01 RRick Crawford	RRick Crawford	Safe R	97.7%	97.3%	98.3%	0.9 pts	–	−0.7	49.3K

California52 districtsD 48 · R 4

Every race in California

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
CA-40 RKen Calvert	RKen Calvert	Safe R	58.4%	54.5%	60.0%	5.5 pts	–	−1.1	30.4K
CA-22 DRandy Villegas	DRandy Villegas	Safe D	90.3%	92.0%	90.2%	1.8 pts	–	−0.8	172.5K
CA-48 DMarni von Wilpert	DMarni von Wilpert	Safe D	93.0%	93.5%	92.3%	1.2 pts	–	+0.3	81.1K
CA-45 DDerek Tran	DDerek Tran	Safe D	93.2%	93.5%	92.9%	0.6 pts	–	+0.1	153.4K
CA-05 RTom McClintock	RTom McClintock	Safe R	93.3%	93.0%	94.0%	1.1 pts	–	+1.9	44.1K
CA-06 DRichard Pan	DRichard Pan	Safe D	94.5%	95.0%	92.3%	2.7 pts	–	+0.4	121.7K
CA-01 DMike McGuire	DMike McGuire	Safe D	94.7%	95.0%	94.0%	1.0 pts	–	−0.2	60.9K
CA-21 DJim Costa	DJim Costa	Safe D	94.8%	95.5%	94.7%	1.3 pts	–	−0.4	66.8K
CA-37 DSydney Kamlager-Dove	DSydney Kamlager-Dove	Safe D	95.2%	95.3%	94.5%	1.7 pts	–	+1.0	66.3K
CA-04 DDemocratic Party	DDemocratic Party	Safe D	95.7% Polymarket only	95.7%	–	–	–	0.0	59.0K
CA-41 DLinda Sánchez	DLinda Sánchez	Safe D	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	0.5 pts	–	−0.4	34.2K
CA-25 DRaul Ruiz	DRaul Ruiz	Safe D	95.7%	95.9%	95.6%	0.3 pts	–	−1.0	28.4K
CA-13 DAdam Gray	DAdam Gray	Safe D	95.8%	96.0%	95.4%	0.5 pts	–	+0.5	78.0K
CA-27 DGeorge Whitesides	DGeorge Whitesides	Safe D	95.9%	96.0%	95.8%	0.3 pts	–	+0.5	30.5K
CA-03 DAmi Bera	DAmi Bera	Safe D	96.0%	96.0%	95.8%	0.3 pts	–	+0.1	66.5K
CA-31 DGil Cisneros	DGil Cisneros	Safe D	96.0%	95.8%	97.8%	2.0 pts	–	−0.1	19.1K
CA-29 DDemocratic Party	DDemocratic Party	Safe D	96.0% Polymarket only	96.0%	–	–	–	+0.3	44.4K
CA-33 DPete Aguilar	DPete Aguilar	Safe D	96.2%	95.8%	96.7%	1.1 pts	–	+0.1	28.2K
CA-49 DMike Levin	DMike Levin	Safe D	96.2%	96.5%	96.0%	0.5 pts	–	−0.3	44.4K
CA-47 DDave Min	DDave Min	Safe D	96.3%	97.2%	95.8%	1.4 pts	–	+0.6	36.0K
CA-42 DRobert Garcia	DRobert Garcia	Safe D	96.4%	96.0%	97.8%	1.8 pts	–	−0.2	44.1K
CA-50 DScott Peters	DScott Peters	Safe D	96.4%	96.2%	96.9%	1.2 pts	–	+0.9	72.2K
CA-51 DSara Jacobs	DSara Jacobs	Safe D	96.5%	95.6%	98.0%	2.4 pts	–	+0.5	35.3K
CA-26 DJacqui Irwin	DJacqui Irwin	Safe D	96.6%	96.0%	98.4%	2.4 pts	–	+1.1	37.3K
CA-08 DJohn Garamendi	DJohn Garamendi	Safe D	96.6%	96.2%	96.8%	1.0 pts	–	−0.6	59.8K
CA-10 DMark DeSaulnier	DMark DeSaulnier	Safe D	96.6%	96.1%	98.0%	2.0 pts	–	−0.5	28.4K
CA-46 DLou Correa	DLou Correa	Safe D	96.7%	95.5%	97.0%	1.6 pts	–	+0.3	52.7K
CA-32 DBrad Sherman	DBrad Sherman	Safe D	96.8%	96.4%	97.5%	1.1 pts	–	+0.6	31.4K
CA-30 DLaura Friedman	DLaura Friedman	Safe D	96.9%	95.8%	98.6%	2.8 pts	–	+1.0	38.5K
CA-09 DJosh Harder	DJosh Harder	Safe D	97.1%	97.3%	97.0%	1.0 pts	–	−0.5	30.5K
CA-52 DJuan Vargas	DJuan Vargas	Safe D	97.2%	96.8%	97.2%	0.6 pts	–	+0.8	66.5K
CA-07 DDemocratic Party	DDemocratic Party	Safe D	97.2% Polymarket only	97.2%	–	–	–	+0.6	75.9K
CA-20 RVince Fong	RVince Fong	Safe R	97.3%	98.2%	97.0%	1.1 pts	–	−0.2	54.9K
CA-43 DMaxine Waters	DMaxine Waters	Safe D	97.3%	96.8%	98.4%	1.6 pts	–	+0.8	34.9K
CA-15 DKevin Mullin	DKevin Mullin	Safe D	97.3%	97.0%	97.8%	0.8 pts	–	+1.4	139.6K
CA-28 DJudy Chu	DJudy Chu	Safe D	97.3%	96.8%	98.4%	1.6 pts	–	+0.9	145.2K
CA-35 DNorma Torres	DNorma Torres	Safe D	97.4%	96.4%	98.9%	2.5 pts	–	−1.5	47.0K
CA-23 RJay Obernolte	RJay Obernolte	Safe R	97.6%	97.7%	97.2%	0.5 pts	–	+2.4	105.5K
CA-38 DHilda Solis	DHilda Solis	Safe D	97.6%	97.4%	98.0%	0.7 pts	–	−0.7	68.4K
CA-36 DTed Lieu	DTed Lieu	Safe D	97.6%	97.3%	98.8%	1.5 pts	–	+0.9	91.0K
CA-16 DSam Liccardo	DSam Liccardo	Safe D	97.6%	97.4%	98.0%	0.7 pts	–	+0.6	117.8K
CA-12 DDemocratic Party	DDemocratic Party	Safe D	97.8% Polymarket only	97.8%	–	–	–	0.0	52.2K
CA-17 DRo Khanna	DRo Khanna	Safe D	97.8%	97.4%	98.5%	1.1 pts	–	−0.7	17.8K
CA-24 DSalud Carbajal	DSalud Carbajal	Safe D	97.8%	97.8%	97.8%	0.5 pts	–	+0.4	65.8K
CA-39 DMark Takano	DMark Takano	Safe D	97.9%	98.0%	97.8%	0.6 pts	–	+2.0	63.0K
CA-34 DDemocratic Party	DDemocratic Party	Safe D	98.0% Polymarket only	98.0%	–	–	–	−0.1	119.6K
CA-44 DNanette Barragán	DNanette Barragán	Safe D	98.1%	97.8%	98.7%	0.9 pts	–	+0.5	48.1K
CA-02 DJared Huffman	DJared Huffman	Safe D	98.4%	98.1%	98.9%	0.8 pts	–	−0.4	23.0K
CA-11 DDemocratic Party	DDemocratic Party	Safe D	98.4% Polymarket only	98.4%	–	–	–	0.0	209.7K
CA-18 DZoe Lofgren	DZoe Lofgren	Safe D	98.5%	98.4%	98.5%	0.1 pts	–	+0.1	51.3K
CA-19 DJimmy Panetta	DJimmy Panetta	Safe D	98.8%	98.4%	99.0%	0.6 pts	–	+0.5	56.1K
CA-14 DDemocratic Party	DDemocratic Party	Safe D	99.3% Polymarket only	99.3%	–	–	–	−0.4	107.3K

Colorado8 districtsD 5 · R 3

Every race in Colorado

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
CO-03 RJeff Hurd	RJeff Hurd	Lean R	71.8%	72.5%	70.5%	2.0 pts	–	−0.7	91.2K
CO-04 RLauren Boebert	RLauren Boebert	Lean R	72.9%	71.5%	74.5%	3.0 pts	–	+3.2	221.6K
CO-05 RJeff Crank	RJeff Crank	Likely R	76.2%	74.5%	76.5%	2.0 pts	–	+2.0	111.8K
CO-08 DManny Rutinel	DManny Rutinel	Likely D	84.4%	84.0%	84.5%	0.5 pts	–	−0.1	59.0K
CO-06 DJason Crow	DJason Crow	Safe D	96.9%	96.2%	98.1%	1.9 pts	–	+0.3	33.1K
CO-07 DBrittany Pettersen	DBrittany Pettersen	Safe D	98.0%	97.7%	98.7%	1.0 pts	–	+2.1	30.3K
CO-02 DJoe Neguse	DJoe Neguse	Safe D	98.1%	98.0%	98.1%	0.1 pts	–	+1.5	51.9K
CO-01 DMelat Kiros	DMelat Kiros	Safe D	98.2%	98.0%	98.3%	0.8 pts	–	+0.1	46.0K

Connecticut5 districtsD 5 · R 0

Every race in Connecticut

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
CT-05 DJahana Hayes	DJahana Hayes	Safe D	94.7%	94.7%	94.7%	0.1 pts	–	−0.7	17.8K
CT-03 DRosa DeLauro	DRosa DeLauro	Safe D	96.7%	96.4%	97.4%	1.5 pts	–	+1.0	32.0K
CT-01 DLuke Bronin	DLuke Bronin	Safe D	96.9%	95.7%	97.9%	2.5 pts	–	+0.4	18.6K
CT-04 DJim Himes	DJim Himes	Safe D	97.5%	97.2%	98.0%	0.8 pts	–	+0.6	50.6K
CT-02 DJoe Courtney	DJoe Courtney	Safe D	98.0%	97.6%	98.5%	0.9 pts	–	+1.6	22.7K

Delaware1 districtD 1 · R 0

Every race in Delaware

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
DE-AL DDemocratic Party	DDemocratic Party	Safe D	97.6%		96.9%	98.6%	1.7 pts	–	−1.2	50.4K

Florida28 districtsD 6 · R 21 · 1 toss-up

Every race in Florida

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
FL-22 DPia Dandiya	DPia Dandiya	Toss-up	54.1%	54.0%	54.5%	2.0 pts	–	−0.1	188.2K
FL-27 RMaría Elvira Salazar	RMaría Elvira Salazar	Lean R	63.7%	62.5%	65.5%	3.0 pts	–	+0.4	139.7K
FL-07 RRyan Elijah	RRyan Elijah	Lean R	65.4%	64.5%	66.5%	2.0 pts	–	−1.1	69.4K
FL-14 DKathy Castor	DKathy Castor	Lean D	68.5%	69.5%	68.0%	1.5 pts	–	+2.0	367.7K
FL-09 RDan Green	RDan Green	Lean R	70.0%	69.5%	70.5%	1.0 pts	–	−1.3	119.3K
FL-13 RAnna Paulina Luna	RAnna Paulina Luna	Lean R	74.1%	73.5%	74.5%	1.0 pts	–	+0.6	61.0K
FL-25 DJared Moskowitz	DJared Moskowitz	Likely D	80.0%	79.5%	81.0%	1.5 pts	–	+4.7	346.9K
FL-16 RSydney Gruters	RSydney Gruters	Likely R	82.9%	82.0%	83.0%	1.0 pts	–	−0.1	44.4K
FL-04 RAaron Bean	RAaron Bean	Likely R	86.0%	86.0%	86.0%	0.5 pts	–	0.0	39.2K
FL-11 RJoe Strada	RJoe Strada	Likely R	87.9%	90.5%	87.5%	3.0 pts	–	+0.7	39.8K
FL-26 RMario Díaz-Balart	RMario Díaz-Balart	Likely R	88.6%	88.5%	89.1%	0.6 pts	–	+0.3	97.8K
FL-02 RAustin Rogers	RAustin Rogers	Safe R	92.1%	92.5%	91.8%	1.0 pts	–	+1.2	27.2K
FL-21 RBrian Mast	RBrian Mast	Safe R	92.2%	92.5%	91.9%	0.6 pts	–	+2.4	34.8K
FL-05 RJohn Rutherford	RJohn Rutherford	Safe R	92.8%	92.5%	93.1%	1.6 pts	–	+1.4	29.8K
FL-18 RScott Franklin	RScott Franklin	Safe R	93.0%	93.0%	93.0%	0.6 pts	–	+1.8	72.5K
FL-12 RGus Bilirakis	RGus Bilirakis	Safe R	93.5%	93.5%	93.5%	0.8 pts	–	+6.8	93.8K
FL-28 RCarlos Giménez	RCarlos Giménez	Safe R	93.7%	94.5%	92.3%	2.1 pts	–	−0.5	75.5K
FL-08 RMike Haridopolos	RMike Haridopolos	Safe R	94.2%	94.5%	93.8%	0.8 pts	–	+0.5	70.3K
FL-15 RLaurel Lee	RLaurel Lee	Safe R	94.2%	96.1%	93.8%	2.4 pts	–	+3.0	49.4K
FL-23 DLois Frankel	DLois Frankel	Safe D	94.4%	95.8%	94.0%	1.8 pts	–	−1.1	45.1K
FL-19 RJim Schwartzel	RJim Schwartzel	Safe R	94.7%	94.5%	95.2%	1.3 pts	–	0.0	35.4K
FL-03 RKat Cammack	RKat Cammack	Safe R	95.0%	94.5%	95.3%	0.9 pts	–	+0.6	50.6K
FL-17 RGreg Steube	RGreg Steube	Safe R	95.5%	95.4%	95.5%	0.6 pts	–	+1.0	38.1K
FL-24 DOliver Gilbert	DOliver Gilbert	Safe D	95.7%	95.6%	98.1%	2.5 pts	–	−0.9	65.2K
FL-01 RJimmy Patronis	RJimmy Patronis	Safe R	96.3%	95.5%	96.8%	1.3 pts	–	+0.5	123.9K
FL-06 RRandy Fine	RRandy Fine	Safe R	96.6%	96.0%	97.8%	1.8 pts	–	−0.5	42.5K
FL-20 DDebbie Wasserman Schultz	DDebbie Wasserman Schultz	Safe D	97.3%	97.4%	97.0%	0.8 pts	–	−0.4	50.4K
FL-10 DMaxwell Frost	DMaxwell Frost	Safe D	97.5%	96.8%	97.8%	0.9 pts	–	+0.4	60.7K

Georgia14 districtsD 5 · R 9

Every race in Georgia

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
GA-12 RRick Allen	RRick Allen	Likely R	89.8%	89.5%	90.3%	0.8 pts	–	+1.8	78.9K
GA-01 RJim Kingston	RJim Kingston	Likely R	89.9%	89.5%	91.3%	1.8 pts	–	−0.5	32.5K
GA-07 RRich McCormick	RRich McCormick	Safe R	93.1%	93.0%	93.3%	0.3 pts	–	+0.2	58.4K
GA-10 RHouston Gaines	RHouston Gaines	Safe R	94.4%	94.2%	95.4%	1.2 pts	–	−0.5	60.3K
GA-02 DSanford Bishop	DSanford Bishop	Safe D	95.4%	94.5%	97.2%	2.7 pts	–	−0.5	53.4K
GA-11 RJohn Cowan	RJohn Cowan	Safe R	95.7%	96.2%	95.2%	1.1 pts	–	−1.3	112.8K
GA-03 RBrian Jack	RBrian Jack	Safe R	95.8%	95.5%	96.8%	2.1 pts	–	−0.1	30.6K
GA-14 RClay Fuller	RClay Fuller	Safe R	96.1%	95.7%	96.4%	0.7 pts	–	−0.1	37.5K
GA-09 RAndrew Clyde	RAndrew Clyde	Safe R	96.1%	96.5%	95.5%	1.1 pts	–	+0.2	71.4K
GA-06 DLucy McBath	DLucy McBath	Safe D	97.6%	96.8%	98.8%	2.0 pts	–	+1.6	33.8K
GA-08 RAustin Scott	RAustin Scott	Safe R	97.9%	98.0%	97.8%	0.4 pts	–	+0.8	57.8K
GA-13 DJasmine Clark	DJasmine Clark	Safe D	98.3%	98.3%	98.3%	0.3 pts	–	+0.5	48.1K
GA-04 DHank Johnson	DHank Johnson	Safe D	98.3%	98.0%	98.4%	0.4 pts	–	+0.3	50.0K
GA-05 DNikema Williams	DNikema Williams	Safe D	98.8%	98.6%	99.0%	0.4 pts	–	+0.1	55.5K

Hawaii2 districtsD 2 · R 0

Every race in Hawaii

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
HI-02 DJill Tokuda	DJill Tokuda	Safe D	95.8%		95.6%	96.4%	0.8 pts	–	0.0	112.3K
HI-01 DEd Case	DEd Case	Safe D	96.1%		95.8%	97.6%	1.9 pts	–	−0.4	53.2K

Idaho2 districtsD 0 · R 2

Every race in Idaho

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
ID-02 RMike Simpson	RMike Simpson	Safe R	95.8%		95.4%	96.4%	1.2 pts	–	+0.6	44.4K
ID-01 RRuss Fulcher	RRuss Fulcher	Safe R	96.3%		95.8%	98.0%	2.2 pts	–	−0.3	49.6K

Illinois17 districtsD 14 · R 3

Every race in Illinois

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
IL-08 DMelissa Bean	DMelissa Bean	Safe D	94.7%	95.0%	94.5%	0.4 pts	–	+1.4	30.5K
IL-17 DEric Sorensen	DEric Sorensen	Safe D	95.0%	96.7%	94.6%	2.1 pts	–	−1.2	39.7K
IL-16 RDarin LaHood	RDarin LaHood	Safe R	95.5%	95.5%	95.5%	0.3 pts	–	−0.5	102.2K
IL-15 RMary Miller	RMary Miller	Safe R	95.6%	96.0%	95.3%	0.7 pts	–	−0.2	47.5K
IL-03 DDelia Ramirez	DDelia Ramirez	Safe D	96.1%	95.9%	96.5%	0.6 pts	–	−0.1	53.2K
IL-14 DLauren Underwood	DLauren Underwood	Safe D	96.1%	96.0%	96.8%	0.8 pts	–	−1.2	28.9K
IL-02 DDonna Miller	DDonna Miller	Safe D	96.2%	95.9%	96.3%	1.0 pts	–	+0.3	37.6K
IL-11 DBill Foster	DBill Foster	Safe D	96.2%	96.0%	97.0%	1.0 pts	–	+0.1	48.0K
IL-01 DJonathan Jackson	DJonathan Jackson	Safe D	96.4%	96.4%	96.3%	0.5 pts	–	−0.5	67.4K
IL-13 DNikki Budzinski	DNikki Budzinski	Safe D	96.4%	96.0%	97.1%	1.6 pts	–	−0.3	23.4K
IL-04 DPatty Garcia	DPatty Garcia	Safe D	96.5%	95.9%	97.5%	1.8 pts	–	−0.4	85.0K
IL-06 DSean Casten	DSean Casten	Safe D	96.5%	96.2%	97.4%	1.3 pts	–	−0.3	44.3K
IL-07 DLa Shawn Ford	DLa Shawn Ford	Safe D	96.8%	96.2%	98.2%	2.0 pts	–	−1.0	27.0K
IL-12 RMike Bost	RMike Bost	Safe R	97.0%	96.6%	97.4%	0.8 pts	–	+1.0	33.7K
IL-10 DBrad Schneider	DBrad Schneider	Safe D	97.1%	96.8%	97.5%	0.7 pts	–	0.0	36.0K
IL-05 DMike Quigley	DMike Quigley	Safe D	97.3%	97.0%	97.4%	0.5 pts	–	−0.2	36.9K
IL-09 DDaniel Biss	DDaniel Biss	Safe D	97.4%	97.0%	98.0%	1.0 pts	–	0.0	34.9K

Indiana9 districtsD 2 · R 7

Every race in Indiana

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
IN-05 RVictoria Spartz	RVictoria Spartz	Likely R	81.7%	80.5%	82.0%	1.5 pts	–	−0.8	73.1K
IN-04 RJim Baird	RJim Baird	Safe R	94.4%	94.5%	94.3%	0.2 pts	–	−0.1	49.5K
IN-08 RMark Messmer	RMark Messmer	Safe R	95.3%	96.0%	95.2%	1.0 pts	–	0.0	49.6K
IN-03 RMarlin Stutzman	RMarlin Stutzman	Safe R	95.7%	95.0%	96.4%	1.7 pts	–	+0.1	43.2K
IN-02 RRudy Yakym	RRudy Yakym	Safe R	96.3%	96.2%	96.8%	1.6 pts	–	−0.2	42.9K
IN-06 RJefferson Shreve	RJefferson Shreve	Safe R	96.4%	95.8%	97.0%	2.2 pts	–	0.0	40.2K
IN-09 RErin Houchin	RErin Houchin	Safe R	96.5%	96.8%	96.2%	0.5 pts	–	+0.9	46.2K
IN-01 DFrank Mrvan	DFrank Mrvan	Safe D	96.9%	96.8%	97.0%	0.3 pts	–	−0.3	55.6K
IN-07 DAndré Carson	DAndré Carson	Safe D	97.2%	97.4%	97.2%	1.2 pts	–	+0.1	66.9K

Iowa4 districtsD 2 · R 1 · 1 toss-up

Every race in Iowa

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
IA-02 DLindsay James	DLindsay James	Toss-up	59.5%	60.5%	58.5%	3.0 pts	–	+3.5	70.8K
IA-03 DSarah Trone Garriott	DSarah Trone Garriott	Likely D	79.1%	81.5%	79.0%	2.5 pts	–	+2.3	96.6K
IA-01 DChristina Bohannan	DChristina Bohannan	Safe D	90.5%	91.0%	90.4%	0.6 pts	–	+4.5	355.3K
IA-04 RChris McGowan	RChris McGowan	Safe R	95.8%	96.0%	95.7%	1.0 pts	–	+0.6	70.8K

Kansas4 districtsD 1 · R 3

Every race in Kansas

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
KS-02 RDerek Schmidt	RDerek Schmidt	Likely R	87.1%	87.0%	88.0%	1.7 pts	–	−2.5	28.9K
KS-03 DSharice Davids	DSharice Davids	Safe D	94.9%	94.5%	96.4%	1.9 pts	–	−0.4	49.4K
KS-01 RTracey Mann	RTracey Mann	Safe R	95.3%	95.0%	95.5%	1.3 pts	–	0.0	40.9K
KS-04 RRon Estes	RRon Estes	Safe R	95.3%	95.0%	95.4%	0.4 pts	–	0.0	122.5K

Kentucky6 districtsD 1 · R 5

Every race in Kentucky

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
KY-06 RRalph Alvarado	RRalph Alvarado	Lean R	68.4%	65.5%	69.5%	4.0 pts	–	−0.4	185.4K
KY-04 REd Gallrein	REd Gallrein	Safe R	94.5%	95.1%	94.5%	1.0 pts	–	−1.7	94.6K
KY-01 RJames Comer	RJames Comer	Safe R	96.6%	96.3%	98.1%	1.8 pts	–	−0.7	54.8K
KY-03 DMorgan McGarvey	DMorgan McGarvey	Safe D	96.9%	97.1%	96.8%	0.5 pts	–	+0.2	52.3K
KY-05 RHal Rogers	RHal Rogers	Safe R	97.1%	96.5%	97.4%	1.5 pts	–	−0.3	70.6K
KY-02 RBrett Guthrie	RBrett Guthrie	Safe R	97.2%	97.0%	98.0%	1.1 pts	–	0.0	21.7K

Louisiana6 districtsD 1 · R 5

Every race in Louisiana

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
LA-06 RRepublican Party	RRepublican Party	Safe R	92.7%	92.5%	93.4%	0.9 pts	–	+0.6	113.8K
LA-04 RRepublican Party	RRepublican Party	Safe R	94.5%	94.5%	96.5%	2.0 pts	–	−0.7	21.5K
LA-03 RRepublican Party	RRepublican Party	Safe R	95.5%	95.5%	97.2%	1.7 pts	–	−1.2	39.8K
LA-05 RRepublican Party	RRepublican Party	Safe R	95.8%	95.4%	96.5%	1.3 pts	–	−0.2	41.0K
LA-01 RRepublican Party	RRepublican Party	Safe R	96.7%	96.5%	97.5%	1.7 pts	–	+0.2	56.8K
LA-02 DDemocratic Party	DDemocratic Party	Safe D	97.7%	97.5%	97.8%	0.6 pts	–	−0.9	94.4K

Maine2 districtsD 1 · R 1

Every race in Maine

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
ME-02 RPaul LePage	RPaul LePage	Lean R	63.2%		62.5%	64.5%	2.0 pts	–	−1.3	169.0K
ME-01 DChellie Pingree	DChellie Pingree	Safe D	96.5%		96.0%	97.0%	1.1 pts	–	+0.4	52.0K

Maryland8 districtsD 7 · R 1

Every race in Maryland

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
MD-01 RAndy Harris	RAndy Harris	Likely R	87.5%	87.5%	87.5%	1.0 pts	–	−2.5	140.8K
MD-02 DJohnny Olszewski	DJohnny Olszewski	Safe D	95.5%	94.5%	96.6%	2.1 pts	–	−0.3	28.7K
MD-06 DApril McClain Delaney	DApril McClain Delaney	Safe D	95.8%	95.6%	95.9%	0.3 pts	–	−0.4	42.2K
MD-03 DSarah Elfreth	DSarah Elfreth	Safe D	96.1%	95.5%	96.2%	0.7 pts	–	+0.9	55.3K
MD-05 DAdrian Boafo	DAdrian Boafo	Safe D	96.5%	96.0%	97.2%	1.2 pts	–	+0.3	25.0K
MD-07 DKweisi Mfume	DKweisi Mfume	Safe D	96.9%	96.4%	98.3%	1.8 pts	–	+0.4	24.9K
MD-08 DJamie Raskin	DJamie Raskin	Safe D	97.1%	96.9%	97.6%	0.7 pts	–	−0.3	28.4K
MD-04 DGlenn Ivey	DGlenn Ivey	Safe D	98.3%	97.5%	99.0%	1.4 pts	–	+0.3	48.9K

Massachusetts9 districtsD 9 · R 0

Every race in Massachusetts

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
MA-02 DJim McGovern	DJim McGovern	Safe D	95.8%	95.4%	97.2%	1.7 pts	–	−0.2	76.2K
MA-09 DBill Keating	DBill Keating	Safe D	95.9%	95.8%	96.4%	0.8 pts	–	−0.2	29.4K
MA-01 DRichard Neal	DRichard Neal	Safe D	96.2%	95.5%	96.9%	1.4 pts	–	+0.3	57.6K
MA-03 DLori Trahan	DLori Trahan	Safe D	96.3%	95.4%	97.6%	2.2 pts	–	+1.3	25.3K
MA-06 DDan Koh	DDan Koh	Safe D	96.9%	96.2%	98.1%	1.9 pts	–	−0.1	28.3K
MA-05 DKatherine Clark	DKatherine Clark	Safe D	97.4%	96.8%	98.3%	1.5 pts	–	−0.1	39.0K
MA-08 DStephen Lynch	DStephen Lynch	Safe D	97.4%	97.4%	97.4%	0.6 pts	–	+0.2	28.5K
MA-04 DJake Auchincloss	DJake Auchincloss	Safe D	97.6%	97.2%	97.8%	0.5 pts	–	+0.6	51.3K
MA-07 DAyanna Pressley	DAyanna Pressley	Safe D	98.2%	98.2%	98.3%	0.1 pts	–	+0.4	36.7K

Michigan13 districtsD 8 · R 4 · 1 toss-up

Every race in Michigan

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
MI-04 RBill Huizenga	RBill Huizenga	Toss-up	51.2%	50.5%	53.0%	2.5 pts	–	−0.6	42.2K
MI-07 DWilliam Lawrence	DWilliam Lawrence	Lean D	62.5%	62.5%	62.5%	1.5 pts	–	+1.5	125.2K
MI-10 DChristina Hines	DChristina Hines	Lean D	64.8%	64.5%	65.5%	1.0 pts	–	−0.2	33.0K
MI-01 RJack Bergman	RJack Bergman	Likely R	88.8%	88.5%	89.0%	0.6 pts	–	−1.7	48.5K
MI-08 DKristen McDonald Rivet	DKristen McDonald Rivet	Safe D	93.9%	94.5%	93.8%	0.7 pts	–	−0.1	36.8K
MI-05 RTim Walberg	RTim Walberg	Safe R	94.9%	95.0%	94.9%	0.9 pts	–	+3.5	50.1K
MI-03 DHillary Scholten	DHillary Scholten	Safe D	95.2%	95.3%	94.2%	1.1 pts	–	+0.3	67.0K
MI-11 DJeremy Moss	DJeremy Moss	Safe D	95.4%	95.3%	96.4%	1.1 pts	–	−0.8	84.4K
MI-09 RLisa McClain	RLisa McClain	Safe R	95.7%	95.9%	95.6%	1.5 pts	–	−1.1	44.5K
MI-02 RJohn Moolenaar	RJohn Moolenaar	Safe R	96.6%	98.0%	96.2%	1.8 pts	–	−0.6	64.1K
MI-13 DDonavan McKinney	DDonavan McKinney	Safe D	97.5%	98.0%	97.2%	0.9 pts	–	−0.7	52.5K
MI-06 DDebbie Dingell	DDebbie Dingell	Safe D	97.6%	97.3%	98.0%	0.7 pts	–	+0.6	54.7K
MI-12 DRashida Tlaib	DRashida Tlaib	Safe D	98.7%	98.0%	99.0%	1.3 pts	–	+0.2	42.5K

Minnesota8 districtsD 4 · R 4

Every race in Minnesota

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
MN-01 RBrad Finstad	RBrad Finstad	Likely R	76.3%	74.5%	76.5%	2.0 pts	–	−0.4	415.7K
MN-08 RPete Stauber	RPete Stauber	Likely R	87.5%	87.5%	87.5%	0.0 pts	–	−0.5	39.5K
MN-02 DMatt Little	DMatt Little	Safe D	93.4%	94.5%	92.3%	2.2 pts	–	+1.6	70.6K
MN-05 DIlhan Omar	DIlhan Omar	Safe D	93.7%	94.8%	93.5%	1.4 pts	–	−4.0	370.8K
MN-06 RTom Emmer	RTom Emmer	Safe R	95.1%	95.7%	94.4%	2.0 pts	–	+0.4	123.4K
MN-04 DBetty McCollum	DBetty McCollum	Safe D	96.4%	96.4%	96.4%	0.9 pts	–	+0.6	50.3K
MN-03 DKelly Morrison	DKelly Morrison	Safe D	97.1%	96.5%	97.2%	0.7 pts	–	+0.7	31.2K
MN-07 RMichelle Fischbach	RMichelle Fischbach	Safe R	97.1%	97.5%	96.8%	0.7 pts	–	+1.1	41.2K

Mississippi4 districtsD 1 · R 3

Every race in Mississippi

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
MS-01 RTrent Kelly	RTrent Kelly	Safe R	95.8%	96.0%	95.6%	0.8 pts	–	+0.2	134.9K
MS-04 RMike Ezell	RMike Ezell	Safe R	96.3%	95.8%	97.5%	1.7 pts	–	−0.6	51.6K
MS-03 RMichael Guest	RMichael Guest	Safe R	97.5%	98.0%	97.4%	0.6 pts	–	−0.4	66.8K
MS-02 DBennie Thompson	DBennie Thompson	Safe D	97.7%	97.2%	97.9%	0.7 pts	–	+0.6	84.1K

Missouri8 districtsD 2 · R 6

Every race in Missouri

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
MO-02 RAnn Wagner	RAnn Wagner	Likely R	76.7%	77.0%	76.5%	2.0 pts	–	+2.5	148.8K
MO-04 RMark Alford	RMark Alford	Safe R	95.9%	95.8%	96.2%	0.6 pts	–	+0.2	81.5K
MO-05 DEmanuel Cleaver	DEmanuel Cleaver	Safe D	96.1%	96.2%	96.1%	0.1 pts	–	−0.1	244.5K
MO-06 RChris Stigall	RChris Stigall	Safe R	96.2%	96.0%	96.8%	2.4 pts	–	+1.2	65.4K
MO-03 RBob Onder	RBob Onder	Safe R	96.3%	96.0%	96.8%	0.7 pts	–	−0.5	47.5K
MO-07 REric Burlison	REric Burlison	Safe R	96.5%	96.0%	97.0%	1.3 pts	–	+0.1	40.5K
MO-08 RJason Smith	RJason Smith	Safe R	98.0%	97.8%	98.2%	0.4 pts	–	+0.7	46.6K
MO-01 DWesley Bell	DWesley Bell	Safe D	98.1%	97.9%	98.2%	0.4 pts	–	−0.1	39.5K

Montana2 districtsD 0 · R 2

Every race in Montana

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
MT-01 RAaron Flint	RAaron Flint	Lean R	68.6%		67.5%	69.5%	2.0 pts	–	+1.6	571.3K
MT-02 RTroy Downing	RTroy Downing	Safe R	97.6%		97.0%	98.0%	0.9 pts	–	+0.8	75.6K

Nebraska3 districtsD 1 · R 2

Every race in Nebraska

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
NE-01 RMike Flood	RMike Flood	Likely R	82.1%	82.5%	82.0%	0.5 pts	–	+1.1	75.9K
NE-02 DDenise Powell	DDenise Powell	Safe D	94.2%	95.0%	94.2%	2.2 pts	–	+2.2	134.5K
NE-03 RAdrian Smith	RAdrian Smith	Safe R	97.4%	97.2%	98.2%	1.0 pts	–	−1.4	19.0K

Nevada4 districtsD 3 · R 1

Every race in Nevada

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
NV-02 RDavid Flippo	RDavid Flippo	Lean R	73.3%	73.0%	73.5%	1.5 pts	–	+0.3	130.1K
NV-03 DSusie Lee	DSusie Lee	Safe D	93.0%	93.0%	93.0%	0.0 pts	–	−1.1	27.8K
NV-04 DSteven Horsford	DSteven Horsford	Safe D	94.4%	94.4%	94.3%	0.4 pts	–	−2.4	32.9K
NV-01 DDina Titus	DDina Titus	Safe D	94.8%	95.0%	94.5%	0.5 pts	–	−0.6	54.4K

New Hampshire2 districtsD 2 · R 0

Every race in New Hampshire

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
NH-01 DStefany Shaheen	DStefany Shaheen	Safe D	94.4%		95.0%	94.3%	0.7 pts	–	−0.8	68.6K
NH-02 DMaggie Goodlander	DMaggie Goodlander	Safe D	96.3%		96.4%	96.1%	0.6 pts	–	+1.4	51.1K

New Jersey12 districtsD 10 · R 2

Every race in New Jersey

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
NJ-02 RJeff Van Drew	RJeff Van Drew	Likely R	83.3%	83.5%	83.0%	1.5 pts	–	+3.0	79.2K
NJ-07 DRebecca Bennett	DRebecca Bennett	Safe D	91.0%	91.0%	91.1%	0.4 pts	–	+0.3	269.0K
NJ-11 DAnalilia Mejia	DAnalilia Mejia	Safe D	96.0%	95.5%	96.6%	1.1 pts	–	+0.2	65.2K
NJ-01 DDonald Norcross	DDonald Norcross	Safe D	96.1%	96.0%	97.1%	1.1 pts	–	−0.1	56.7K
NJ-08 DRob Menendez	DRob Menendez	Safe D	96.2%	95.5%	97.6%	2.1 pts	–	+0.1	53.1K
NJ-05 DJosh Gottheimer	DJosh Gottheimer	Safe D	96.4%	95.8%	96.4%	0.6 pts	–	−0.4	39.1K
NJ-09 DNellie Pou	DNellie Pou	Safe D	96.7%	96.8%	96.7%	1.1 pts	–	0.0	55.1K
NJ-06 DFrank Pallone	DFrank Pallone	Safe D	96.9%	96.5%	97.4%	1.0 pts	–	+1.5	35.7K
NJ-04 RChris Smith	RChris Smith	Safe R	97.3%	97.4%	97.2%	0.2 pts	–	+1.9	23.3K
NJ-12 DAdam Hamawy	DAdam Hamawy	Safe D	97.4%	97.0%	97.8%	1.0 pts	–	+1.4	42.2K
NJ-03 DHerb Conaway	DHerb Conaway	Safe D	97.5%	97.5%	97.4%	0.2 pts	–	+0.2	46.4K
NJ-10 DLaMonica McIver	DLaMonica McIver	Safe D	98.2% Kalshi only	–	98.2%	0.1 pts	–	−0.1	60.1K

New Mexico3 districtsD 3 · R 0

Every race in New Mexico

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
NM-02 DGabe Vasquez	DGabe Vasquez	Safe D	91.2%	91.9%	91.1%	1.0 pts	–	−4.1	136.3K
NM-03 DTeresa Leger Fernández	DTeresa Leger Fernández	Safe D	96.4%	96.6%	95.7%	0.9 pts	–	−0.1	60.9K
NM-01 DMelanie Stansbury	DMelanie Stansbury	Safe D	96.6%	96.7%	96.6%	1.0 pts	–	+0.8	51.4K

New York26 districtsD 19 · R 6 · 1 toss-up

Every race in New York

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
NY-17 DCait Conley	DCait Conley	Toss-up	59.3%	58.5%	60.5%	2.0 pts	–	+1.8	375.5K
NY-21 RAnthony Constantino	RAnthony Constantino	Likely R	75.1%	74.5%	75.5%	1.0 pts	–	+3.1	244.5K
NY-01 RNick LaLota	RNick LaLota	Likely R	85.7%	84.5%	86.5%	2.0 pts	–	+0.2	248.5K
NY-02 RAndrew Garbarino	RAndrew Garbarino	Likely R	86.0%	84.5%	86.5%	2.0 pts	–	−0.5	36.4K
NY-03 DTom Suozzi	DTom Suozzi	Safe D	90.8%	89.5%	91.0%	1.6 pts	–	+2.8	245.4K
NY-04 DLaura Gillen	DLaura Gillen	Safe D	91.7%	91.0%	91.8%	0.8 pts	–	+0.2	104.1K
NY-22 DJohn Mannion	DJohn Mannion	Safe D	94.7%	94.5%	94.8%	0.7 pts	–	−0.5	45.3K
NY-11 RNicole Malliotakis	RNicole Malliotakis	Safe R	95.0%	95.1%	94.6%	0.5 pts	–	+1.0	68.3K
NY-18 DPat Ryan	DPat Ryan	Safe D	95.5%	95.4%	95.5%	0.3 pts	–	+0.6	65.4K
NY-24 RClaudia Tenney	RClaudia Tenney	Safe R	96.4%	96.4%	96.7%	0.3 pts	–	+0.2	68.6K
NY-19 DJosh Riley	DJosh Riley	Safe D	96.4%	96.4%	96.4%	0.3 pts	–	−1.3	47.6K
NY-23 RNick Langworthy	RNick Langworthy	Safe R	96.7%	96.9%	96.2%	0.7 pts	–	+1.2	108.6K
NY-16 DGeorge Latimer	DGeorge Latimer	Safe D	96.8%	96.0%	98.0%	2.0 pts	–	0.0	42.3K
NY-13 DDarializa Avila Chevalier	DDarializa Avila Chevalier	Safe D	96.8%	96.4%	97.4%	1.0 pts	–	−0.5	43.4K
NY-09 DYvette Clarke	DYvette Clarke	Safe D	96.9%	96.8%	98.0%	1.2 pts	–	−0.4	64.8K
NY-25 DJoseph Morelle	DJoseph Morelle	Safe D	96.9%	96.8%	97.4%	1.0 pts	–	−0.2	43.3K
NY-14 DAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez	DAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Safe D	97.1%	96.7%	98.0%	1.3 pts	–	+0.3	62.6K
NY-07 DClaire Valdez	DClaire Valdez	Safe D	97.3%	96.8%	98.3%	1.5 pts	–	+0.5	31.7K
NY-20 DPaul Tonko	DPaul Tonko	Safe D	97.3%	97.2%	97.6%	0.7 pts	–	+0.3	49.0K
NY-26 DTim Kennedy	DTim Kennedy	Safe D	97.4%	96.8%	98.4%	1.6 pts	–	+0.5	43.5K
NY-06 DGrace Meng	DGrace Meng	Safe D	97.7%	97.4%	98.3%	0.8 pts	–	+0.1	28.9K
NY-08 DHakeem Jeffries	DHakeem Jeffries	Safe D	97.8%	97.8%	97.8%	0.1 pts	–	+0.7	33.6K
NY-15 DRitchie Torres	DRitchie Torres	Safe D	97.9%	97.8%	97.9%	0.3 pts	–	+0.1	51.0K
NY-10 DBrad Lander	DBrad Lander	Safe D	98.1%	97.8%	98.4%	0.6 pts	–	+0.5	73.8K
NY-12 DMicah Lasher	DMicah Lasher	Safe D	98.1%	97.3%	98.9%	1.6 pts	–	+1.2	38.1K
NY-05 DGregory Meeks	DGregory Meeks	Safe D	98.2%	98.0%	98.4%	0.4 pts	–	+0.6	68.3K

North Carolina14 districtsD 5 · R 9

Every race in North Carolina

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
NC-01 DDon Davis	DDon Davis	Lean D	67.2%	69.0%	66.5%	2.5 pts	–	+2.7	181.4K
NC-11 DJamie Ager	DJamie Ager	Likely D	77.2%	75.5%	77.5%	2.0 pts	–	+2.2	257.4K
NC-09 RRichard Hudson	RRichard Hudson	Likely R	82.2%	81.5%	83.0%	1.5 pts	–	+1.0	60.5K
NC-03 RGreg Murphy	RGreg Murphy	Likely R	84.2%	83.5%	84.5%	2.0 pts	–	+2.0	36.4K
NC-07 RDavid Rouzer	RDavid Rouzer	Likely R	86.5%	86.0%	86.5%	1.0 pts	–	−0.3	39.2K
NC-05 RVirginia Foxx	RVirginia Foxx	Likely R	86.9%	86.5%	89.0%	2.5 pts	–	+1.1	51.9K
NC-13 RBrad Knott	RBrad Knott	Likely R	87.5%	87.5%	87.5%	1.0 pts	–	+3.2	15.1K
NC-14 RTim Moore	RTim Moore	Likely R	89.7%	91.0%	89.5%	1.5 pts	–	+3.0	43.1K
NC-06 RAddison McDowell	RAddison McDowell	Safe R	90.5%	90.5%	90.4%	0.3 pts	–	0.0	68.9K
NC-10 RPat Harrigan	RPat Harrigan	Safe R	94.6%	95.0%	94.1%	0.9 pts	–	+0.5	16.2K
NC-08 RMark Harris	RMark Harris	Safe R	95.4%	95.4%	95.6%	0.3 pts	–	−1.5	66.1K
NC-12 DAlma Adams	DAlma Adams	Safe D	96.5%	95.9%	97.5%	1.6 pts	–	+0.2	69.2K
NC-04 DValerie Foushee	DValerie Foushee	Safe D	97.4%	97.3%	97.6%	0.4 pts	–	+0.2	84.8K
NC-02 DDeborah Ross	DDeborah Ross	Safe D	98.6%	98.8%	98.4%	0.6 pts	–	+0.6	36.2K

North Dakota1 districtD 0 · R 1

Every race in North Dakota

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
ND-AL RJulie Fedorchak	RJulie Fedorchak	Safe R	96.4%		96.2%	97.6%	1.4 pts	–	−0.5	71.2K

Ohio15 districtsD 6 · R 9

Every race in Ohio

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
OH-09 DMarcy Kaptur	DMarcy Kaptur	Lean D	72.0%	71.5%	72.0%	1.0 pts	–	−1.0	139.9K
OH-15 RMike Carey	RMike Carey	Lean R	74.2%	73.0%	74.5%	1.5 pts	–	−0.8	46.4K
OH-07 DBrian Poindexter	DBrian Poindexter	Likely D	80.6%	81.0%	80.5%	0.5 pts	–	+0.1	300.6K
OH-10 RMike Turner	RMike Turner	Likely R	83.0%	83.0%	83.0%	2.0 pts	–	−2.0	134.0K
OH-08 RWarren Davidson	RWarren Davidson	Safe R	92.2%	93.0%	92.2%	0.8 pts	–	+0.8	19.9K
OH-01 DGreg Landsman	DGreg Landsman	Safe D	92.5%	92.8%	92.1%	0.7 pts	–	+5.2	146.6K
OH-05 RBob Latta	RBob Latta	Safe R	94.8%	95.0%	94.7%	0.4 pts	–	+1.4	61.0K
OH-12 RTroy Balderson	RTroy Balderson	Safe R	95.4%	95.0%	96.6%	1.6 pts	–	−0.3	48.8K
OH-04 RJim Jordan	RJim Jordan	Safe R	95.5%	95.0%	96.6%	2.1 pts	–	−0.8	26.4K
OH-13 DEmilia Sykes	DEmilia Sykes	Safe D	95.8%	95.8%	95.8%	0.3 pts	–	−0.2	55.0K
OH-14 RDavid Joyce	RDavid Joyce	Safe R	96.4%	96.4%	96.6%	0.7 pts	–	+1.1	102.5K
OH-02 RDavid Taylor	RDavid Taylor	Safe R	96.6%	97.4%	96.3%	1.1 pts	–	−0.5	68.6K
OH-06 RMichael Rulli	RMichael Rulli	Safe R	96.8%	96.8%	97.0%	0.3 pts	–	+1.2	92.9K
OH-03 DJoyce Beatty	DJoyce Beatty	Safe D	97.9%	97.4%	98.6%	1.1 pts	–	+1.1	63.8K
OH-11 DShontel Brown	DShontel Brown	Safe D	98.0%	98.0%	98.4%	0.5 pts	–	+0.3	40.5K

Oklahoma5 districtsD 0 · R 5

Every race in Oklahoma

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
OK-05 RStephanie Bice	RStephanie Bice	Likely R	88.1%	88.0%	89.0%	1.5 pts	–	−2.5	44.7K
OK-04 RTom Cole	RTom Cole	Safe R	95.9%	96.1%	95.8%	0.5 pts	–	−0.6	39.0K
OK-03 RFrank Lucas	RFrank Lucas	Safe R	96.1%	96.0%	97.6%	1.6 pts	–	−0.8	120.5K
OK-01 RMark Tedford	RMark Tedford	Safe R	97.0%	97.8%	96.5%	1.4 pts	–	+0.1	51.0K
OK-02 RJosh Brecheen	RJosh Brecheen	Safe R	98.0%	97.8%	98.0%	0.3 pts	–	−0.4	35.9K

Oregon6 districtsD 5 · R 1

Every race in Oregon

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
OR-05 DJanelle Bynum	DJanelle Bynum	Safe D	94.8%	96.4%	94.8%	1.6 pts	–	−0.3	40.7K
OR-04 DVal Hoyle	DVal Hoyle	Safe D	95.1%	94.5%	95.3%	0.9 pts	–	+0.2	37.5K
OR-03 DMaxine Dexter	DMaxine Dexter	Safe D	96.0%	95.6%	96.6%	1.3 pts	–	−0.1	21.5K
OR-02 RCliff Bentz	RCliff Bentz	Safe R	96.1%	95.0%	97.8%	2.7 pts	–	+1.2	23.3K
OR-06 DAndrea Salinas	DAndrea Salinas	Safe D	96.2%	95.8%	96.8%	1.0 pts	–	−0.3	67.6K
OR-01 DSuzanne Bonamici	DSuzanne Bonamici	Safe D	97.1%	96.2%	98.2%	1.9 pts	–	−0.5	28.2K

Pennsylvania17 districtsD 10 · R 7

Every race in Pennsylvania

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
PA-01 RBrian Fitzpatrick	RBrian Fitzpatrick	Lean R	63.6%	62.5%	64.5%	2.0 pts	–	+1.1	283.8K
PA-08 DPaige Cognetti	DPaige Cognetti	Lean D	72.8%	72.0%	73.5%	2.0 pts	–	+0.3	203.2K
PA-10 DJanelle Stelson	DJanelle Stelson	Likely D	80.5%	80.5%	80.5%	0.0 pts	–	+0.5	50.6K
PA-07 DBob Brooks	DBob Brooks	Likely D	86.4%	85.5%	86.5%	1.0 pts	–	−0.4	398.3K
PA-11 RLloyd Smucker	RLloyd Smucker	Safe R	95.0%	95.0%	95.2%	0.4 pts	–	−0.8	66.4K
PA-16 RMike Kelly	RMike Kelly	Safe R	95.4%	95.5%	94.6%	0.9 pts	–	+1.2	87.7K
PA-09 RDan Meuser	RDan Meuser	Safe R	95.7%	96.4%	95.2%	1.2 pts	–	+1.0	26.1K
PA-15 RGlenn Thompson	RGlenn Thompson	Safe R	96.1%	95.8%	96.4%	0.5 pts	–	+0.1	40.2K
PA-14 RGuy Reschenthaler	RGuy Reschenthaler	Safe R	96.2%	96.2%	96.0%	0.4 pts	–	+0.2	44.1K
PA-17 DChris Deluzio	DChris Deluzio	Safe D	96.3%	96.4%	96.3%	0.3 pts	–	+0.7	43.9K
PA-02 DBrendan Boyle	DBrendan Boyle	Safe D	96.3%	95.8%	98.1%	2.3 pts	–	−0.8	40.4K
PA-04 DMadeleine Dean	DMadeleine Dean	Safe D	96.4%	96.4%	96.2%	0.4 pts	–	−0.3	25.6K
PA-13 RJohn Joyce	RJohn Joyce	Safe R	96.8%	96.2%	97.0%	0.8 pts	–	+0.1	19.9K
PA-06 DChrissy Houlahan	DChrissy Houlahan	Safe D	97.4%	97.0%	98.0%	1.0 pts	–	+0.7	46.2K
PA-12 DSummer Lee	DSummer Lee	Safe D	97.7%	97.4%	98.0%	0.7 pts	–	0.0	87.1K
PA-03 DChris Rabb	DChris Rabb	Safe D	98.1%	97.8%	98.6%	0.8 pts	–	0.0	34.7K
PA-05 DMary Gay Scanlon	DMary Gay Scanlon	Safe D	98.3%	98.2%	98.3%	0.2 pts	–	+1.8	40.6K

Rhode Island2 districtsD 2 · R 0

Every race in Rhode Island

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
RI-02 DSeth Magaziner	DSeth Magaziner	Safe D	92.2%		92.2%	92.2%	0.2 pts	–	−5.2	62.8K
RI-01 DGabe Amo	DGabe Amo	Safe D	98.5%		99.3%	98.4%	0.9 pts	–	+1.0	47.9K

South Carolina7 districtsD 1 · R 6

Every race in South Carolina

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
SC-01 RJenny Costa Honeycutt	RJenny Costa Honeycutt	Lean R	71.1%	69.5%	72.5%	3.0 pts	–	+1.6	271.3K
SC-02 RJoe Wilson	RJoe Wilson	Likely R	87.7%	87.5%	88.5%	1.0 pts	–	+0.2	67.2K
SC-05 RWes Climer	RWes Climer	Safe R	92.7%	92.5%	93.1%	0.6 pts	–	+1.2	25.8K
SC-07 RRussell Fry	RRussell Fry	Safe R	95.2%	95.5%	95.2%	1.0 pts	–	+0.2	75.9K
SC-04 RWilliam Timmons	RWilliam Timmons	Safe R	95.8%	95.5%	96.0%	0.5 pts	–	−0.7	56.1K
SC-03 RSheri Biggs	RSheri Biggs	Safe R	96.6%	96.2%	97.3%	1.2 pts	–	+0.8	56.9K
SC-06 DJim Clyburn	DJim Clyburn	Safe D	97.0%	96.2%	97.2%	1.0 pts	–	+1.0	87.6K

South Dakota1 districtD 0 · R 1

Every race in South Dakota

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
SD-AL RMarty Jackley	RMarty Jackley	Safe R	95.1%		94.5%	96.2%	1.7 pts	–	−0.7	43.0K

Tennessee9 districtsD 0 · R 9

Every race in Tennessee

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
TN-09 RBrent Taylor	RBrent Taylor	Likely R	87.2%	87.5%	87.0%	0.5 pts	–	−0.1	76.1K
TN-05 RCharlie Hatcher	RCharlie Hatcher	Safe R	94.4%	94.5%	94.3%	0.2 pts	–	+2.2	117.5K
TN-06 RJohnny Garrett	RJohnny Garrett	Safe R	95.4%	95.0%	96.0%	1.4 pts	–	0.0	24.8K
TN-07 RMatt Van Epps	RMatt Van Epps	Safe R	95.8%	95.8%	95.6%	1.2 pts	–	+0.6	50.2K
TN-02 RTim Burchett	RTim Burchett	Safe R	96.0%	95.5%	96.5%	1.6 pts	–	−0.2	35.9K
TN-01 RDiana Harshbarger	RDiana Harshbarger	Safe R	96.6%	97.0%	96.4%	0.8 pts	–	−1.2	29.3K
TN-08 RDavid Kustoff	RDavid Kustoff	Safe R	96.7%	96.7%	96.4%	0.7 pts	–	+1.6	59.8K
TN-04 RScott DesJarlais	RScott DesJarlais	Safe R	96.7%	96.6%	97.2%	0.5 pts	–	+0.9	135.2K
TN-03 RChuck Fleischmann	RChuck Fleischmann	Safe R	96.9%	96.7%	97.5%	2.3 pts	–	+0.9	59.4K

Texas38 districtsD 11 · R 26 · 1 toss-up

Every race in Texas

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
TX-35 DJohnny Garcia	DJohnny Garcia	Toss-up	59.5%	59.0%	60.5%	1.5 pts	–	+1.0	268.1K
TX-23 RBrandon Herrera	RBrandon Herrera	Lean R	70.0%	69.5%	71.5%	2.0 pts	–	+7.5	359.4K
TX-15 DBobby Pulido	DBobby Pulido	Likely D	82.6%	82.5%	83.5%	2.0 pts	–	+2.1	2.4M
TX-09 RAlex Mealer	RAlex Mealer	Likely R	83.8%	83.5%	84.0%	1.5 pts	–	+4.0	66.8K
TX-34 DVicente Gonzalez	DVicente Gonzalez	Likely D	84.3%	83.5%	84.5%	1.0 pts	–	+0.3	92.1K
TX-32 RJace Yarbrough	RJace Yarbrough	Likely R	85.9%	85.5%	86.0%	1.1 pts	–	−3.1	79.4K
TX-10 RChris Gober	RChris Gober	Safe R	91.2%	91.0%	91.5%	0.5 pts	–	+0.1	45.5K
TX-28 DHenry Cuellar	DHenry Cuellar	Safe D	91.6%	91.5%	91.7%	0.2 pts	–	+3.1	245.0K
TX-24 RBeth Van Duyne	RBeth Van Duyne	Safe R	92.0%	91.5%	93.1%	1.6 pts	–	−0.1	100.5K
TX-02 RSteve Toth	RSteve Toth	Safe R	93.5%	93.5%	93.3%	0.7 pts	–	+3.0	32.6K
TX-03 RKeith Self	RKeith Self	Safe R	94.6%	94.5%	94.6%	0.7 pts	–	−0.9	59.4K
TX-22 RTrever Nehls	RTrever Nehls	Safe R	94.6%	94.5%	94.7%	0.2 pts	–	+3.1	46.7K
TX-12 RCraig Goldman	RCraig Goldman	Safe R	94.8%	95.3%	94.6%	0.7 pts	–	−0.2	65.3K
TX-06 RJake Ellzey	RJake Ellzey	Safe R	94.9%	94.8%	95.5%	0.7 pts	–	−0.4	90.9K
TX-36 RBrian Babin	RBrian Babin	Safe R	94.9%	94.5%	95.9%	1.4 pts	–	+0.1	54.4K
TX-25 RRoger Williams	RRoger Williams	Safe R	95.1%	95.0%	95.6%	0.6 pts	–	−0.5	46.7K
TX-31 RJohn Carter	RJohn Carter	Safe R	95.3%	95.0%	95.5%	0.6 pts	–	+0.2	66.8K
TX-26 RBrandon Gill	RBrandon Gill	Safe R	95.7%	95.6%	95.9%	0.3 pts	–	+0.4	83.5K
TX-21 RMark Teixeira	RMark Teixeira	Safe R	95.7%	95.5%	95.8%	0.2 pts	–	+3.1	81.2K
TX-08 RJessica Hart Steinmann	RJessica Hart Steinmann	Safe R	95.8%	95.5%	96.5%	1.5 pts	–	+0.1	77.6K
TX-33 DColin Allred	DColin Allred	Safe D	95.8%	95.6%	97.2%	1.6 pts	–	+0.1	18.0K
TX-27 RMichael Cloud	RMichael Cloud	Safe R	95.8%	95.0%	96.2%	1.2 pts	–	+0.9	59.3K
TX-19 RTom Sell	RTom Sell	Safe R	96.1%	95.8%	96.4%	0.6 pts	–	−0.9	37.7K
TX-04 RPat Fallon	RPat Fallon	Safe R	96.1%	95.7%	96.6%	0.9 pts	–	+0.6	84.6K
TX-17 RPete Sessions	RPete Sessions	Safe R	96.1%	95.9%	96.3%	0.4 pts	–	+1.6	82.6K
TX-20 DJoaquin Castro	DJoaquin Castro	Safe D	96.1%	96.0%	96.5%	0.5 pts	–	+0.4	41.1K
TX-07 DLizzie Fletcher	DLizzie Fletcher	Safe D	96.4%	96.3%	96.4%	0.1 pts	–	+0.1	70.7K
TX-38 RJon Bonck	RJon Bonck	Safe R	96.4%	96.9%	96.2%	0.7 pts	–	+4.7	40.2K
TX-11 RAugust Pfluger	RAugust Pfluger	Safe R	96.6%	96.5%	96.6%	0.5 pts	–	+1.7	36.8K
TX-01 RNathaniel Moran	RNathaniel Moran	Safe R	96.9%	96.6%	97.1%	0.5 pts	–	−0.6	68.5K
TX-14 RRandy Weber	RRandy Weber	Safe R	97.0%	97.9%	96.8%	1.1 pts	–	+0.6	37.0K
TX-29 DSylvia Garcia	DSylvia Garcia	Safe D	97.0%	97.2%	96.8%	0.4 pts	–	−0.1	22.0K
TX-13 RRonny Jackson	RRonny Jackson	Safe R	97.1%	97.0%	97.2%	0.2 pts	–	+1.1	44.8K
TX-18 DChristian Menefee	DChristian Menefee	Safe D	97.2%	98.5%	97.2%	1.3 pts	–	−0.2	17.9K
TX-30 DFrederick Haynes III	DFrederick Haynes III	Safe D	97.3%	96.9%	98.3%	1.3 pts	–	+0.6	52.7K
TX-16 DVeronica Escobar	DVeronica Escobar	Safe D	97.8%	97.6%	97.9%	0.3 pts	–	+1.1	27.9K
TX-37 DGreg Casar	DGreg Casar	Safe D	97.8%	97.6%	98.0%	1.1 pts	–	+0.2	47.5K
TX-05 RLance Gooden	RLance Gooden	Safe R	97.8%	97.6%	98.0%	0.4 pts	–	+0.7	70.4K

Utah4 districtsD 1 · R 3

Every race in Utah

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
UT-02 RBlake Moore	RBlake Moore	Safe R	94.6%	94.5%	95.0%	0.8 pts	–	0.0	45.1K
UT-04 RMike Kennedy	RMike Kennedy	Safe R	95.3%	95.2%	96.4%	1.2 pts	–	−1.1	65.2K
UT-01 DBen McAdams	DBen McAdams	Safe D	96.6%	96.4%	96.9%	2.0 pts	–	−0.4	65.3K
UT-03 RCeleste Maloy	RCeleste Maloy	Safe R	96.7%	96.5%	96.8%	0.3 pts	–	−1.0	27.8K

Vermont1 districtD 1 · R 0

Every race in Vermont

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
VT-AL DBecca Balint	DBecca Balint	Safe D	98.2%		98.3%	98.2%	0.3 pts	–	+1.0	58.0K

Virginia11 districtsD 7 · R 3 · 1 toss-up

Every race in Virginia

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
VA-01 DShannon Taylor	DShannon Taylor	Toss-up	56.2%	58.0%	55.5%	2.5 pts	–	+0.9	333.3K
VA-05 RJohn McGuire	RJohn McGuire	Lean R	71.6%	70.5%	72.5%	2.0 pts	–	−5.9	344.0K
VA-02 DElaine Luria	DElaine Luria	Likely D	86.5%	87.5%	85.5%	2.0 pts	–	−0.5	280.2K
VA-06 RBen Cline	RBen Cline	Safe R	93.4%	93.5%	93.1%	0.6 pts	–	+1.3	176.9K
VA-08 DDon Beyer	DDon Beyer	Safe D	96.4%	95.8%	97.1%	1.3 pts	–	−0.6	55.3K
VA-03 DBobby Scott	DBobby Scott	Safe D	96.6%	95.4%	98.3%	2.8 pts	–	+0.2	69.7K
VA-11 DJames Walkinshaw	DJames Walkinshaw	Safe D	96.9%	96.8%	97.2%	0.5 pts	–	+0.8	33.7K
VA-09 RMorgan Griffith	RMorgan Griffith	Safe R	96.9%	96.8%	97.7%	0.9 pts	–	−0.2	75.5K
VA-10 DSuhas Subramanyam	DSuhas Subramanyam	Safe D	97.0%	96.9%	97.1%	0.3 pts	–	+0.7	12.7K
VA-07 DEugene Vindman	DEugene Vindman	Safe D	97.3%	96.9%	97.4%	0.5 pts	–	+2.6	57.4K
VA-04 DJennifer McClellan	DJennifer McClellan	Safe D	98.2%	97.9%	98.8%	0.9 pts	–	+0.4	51.9K

Washington10 districtsD 8 · R 2

Every race in Washington

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
WA-05 RMichael Baumgartner	RMichael Baumgartner	Likely R	85.4%	84.5%	86.5%	2.3 pts	–	+2.7	148.0K
WA-03 DMarie Gluesenkamp Perez	DMarie Gluesenkamp Perez	Safe D	90.5%	89.5%	90.8%	1.3 pts	–	+1.5	234.8K
WA-04 RAmanda McKinney	RAmanda McKinney	Safe R	92.6%	92.5%	92.9%	0.4 pts	–	−0.4	95.4K
WA-02 DRick Larsen	DRick Larsen	Safe D	96.0%	95.3%	97.2%	1.9 pts	–	−0.4	33.7K
WA-09 DAdam Smith	DAdam Smith	Safe D	97.0%	96.9%	97.0%	0.3 pts	–	+0.1	70.0K
WA-08 DKim Schrier	DKim Schrier	Safe D	97.2%	97.5%	97.0%	0.5 pts	–	0.0	34.4K
WA-01 DSuzan DelBene	DSuzan DelBene	Safe D	97.4%	97.4%	97.5%	0.8 pts	–	+1.9	61.1K
WA-10 DMarilyn Strickland	DMarilyn Strickland	Safe D	97.7%	97.6%	97.8%	0.2 pts	–	+1.5	38.7K
WA-07 DPramila Jayapal	DPramila Jayapal	Safe D	98.0%	97.8%	98.3%	1.1 pts	–	−0.1	35.3K
WA-06 DEmily Randall	DEmily Randall	Safe D	98.3%	98.9%	98.1%	0.8 pts	–	−0.1	46.7K

West Virginia2 districtsD 0 · R 2

Every race in West Virginia

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
WV-02 RRiley Moore	RRiley Moore	Safe R	96.6%		96.6%	96.7%	0.3 pts	–	0.0	103.9K
WV-01 RCarol Miller	RCarol Miller	Safe R	97.0%		98.2%	96.2%	2.0 pts	–	−1.2	66.1K

Wisconsin8 districtsD 3 · R 5

Every race in Wisconsin

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume
WI-01 RBryan Steil	RBryan Steil	Lean R	62.1%	62.5%	61.5%	2.0 pts	–	−2.7	95.5K
WI-03 DRebecca Cooke	DRebecca Cooke	Lean D	74.5%	74.0%	74.5%	0.5 pts	–	+1.5	147.9K
WI-08 RTony Wied	RTony Wied	Likely R	88.7%	90.0%	88.5%	1.5 pts	–	+0.7	53.7K
WI-06 RGlenn Grothman	RGlenn Grothman	Safe R	92.6%	92.5%	92.7%	0.2 pts	–	0.0	90.5K
WI-07 RMichael Alfonso	RMichael Alfonso	Safe R	95.1%	94.5%	95.5%	1.1 pts	–	+0.6	89.2K
WI-05 RScott Fitzgerald	RScott Fitzgerald	Safe R	97.1%	97.2%	96.6%	0.6 pts	–	+1.1	118.3K
WI-04 DGwen Moore	DGwen Moore	Safe D	97.2%	96.4%	99.3%	2.8 pts	–	−0.4	38.2K
WI-02 DMark Pocan	DMark Pocan	Safe D	98.1%	98.3%	98.0%	0.5 pts	–	−0.3	105.4K

Wyoming1 districtD 0 · R 1

Every race in Wyoming

Contest	Leader	Rating	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h	7 days	Volume	Trend
WY-AL RChuck Gray	RChuck Gray	Safe R	96.3%		96.0%	96.8%	0.8 pts	–	−1.7	61.6K

Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET · Each state sorted by TruthIndex™, closest race first · Volume combines Polymarket USD and Kalshi contracts