Governors 2026
36 governorships on the ballot. Democrats are favored in 20, Republicans in 14; 2 are toss-ups.
How to read this chart
The bar holds every race on this page, grouped by rating. Each coloured block is one rating, and its width shows how many races have it. Democratic ratings are on the left, toss-ups in the middle and Republican ratings on the right; races led by neither party, or with no price, come last. The key below gives each count.
More in Methodology- Safe DemocratSafe D 14
- Likely DemocratLikely D 5
- Lean DemocratLean D 1
- Toss-up 2
- Lean RepublicanLean R 1
- Likely RepublicanLikely R 3
- Safe RepublicanSafe R 10
After November
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https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/governor-balance/How to read this chart
Each dot is one governorship. Dots on the left are races Democrats are favoured to win, and dots on the right are races Republicans are favoured to win. A strong colour means the market is confident about the winner; a pale colour means a closer race. Yellow dots in the middle are toss-ups, where no side has a 60% chance or more.
The faded dots at the two ends are governors who are not up for election in 2026. Select a dot to open that race.
More in Methodology- Democrats, not upD, not up 6
- Safe DemocratSafe D 14
- Likely DemocratLikely D 5
- Lean DemocratLean D 1
- Toss-up 2
- Lean RepublicanLean R 1
- Likely RepublicanLikely R 3
- Safe RepublicanSafe R 10
- Republicans, not upR, not up 8
Polymarket$705.6K traded
How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
How to read this chart
This chart shows one venue's market. Each bar is a range of results, such as a number of seats. Its height and its number give the venue's price for that range, which reads as a percentage chance. The colour shows which party comes out ahead in that range. The vertical line marks where control changes hands, or a tie for the popular vote, and a grey bar is a range that crosses it.
The bar with the dark outline is the median: the chances of a lower or a higher result each add up to about half. Each venue defines its ranges differently, so the two venues are shown side by side.
More in MethodologyMedian outcome 22–23 Republican governors
- Median
Closest to call
Map
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https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/governor-map/How to read this chart
Each state is coloured by the rating of its governor race. Blue means a Democrat leads and red means a Republican leads; the darker the shade, the more confident the market. Striped states are Lean (a 60% to 75% chance), and yellow states are toss-ups (under 60%). Purple marks a race led by a candidate from neither party, and grey states have no race this year.
The text on each state gives the leading party and its chance of winning. Use the slider or the play button to replay the past 60 days, and the source buttons to switch between the TruthIndex™ and each venue's own prices. Select a state to open its race.
More in MethodologyEvery race
Toss-up2 racesToss-up 2
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | RRick Jackson | Toss-up | 51.9% | 49.5% | 52.5% | 3.0 pts | – | −1.9 | 2.0M | ||
| Nevada | DAaron Ford | Toss-up | 54.3% | 53.5% | 54.5% | 2.0 pts | – | +1.3 | 1.9M |
Lean2 racesLean DemocratLean D 1Lean RepublicanLean R 1
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | DAmy Acton | Lean D | 71.3% | 72.5% | 70.5% | 2.0 pts | – | +1.8 | 3.0M | ||
| Kansas | RTy Masterson | Lean R | 75.0% | 74.5% | 75.5% | 2.0 pts | – | −0.5 | 224.0K |
Likely8 racesLikely DemocratLikely D 5Likely RepublicanLikely R 3
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | DTina Kotek | Likely D | 75.5% | 75.5% | 75.5% | 1.0 pts | – | −2.0 | 448.8K | ||
| Vermont | RPhil Scott | Likely R | 76.3% | 76.0% | 76.5% | 0.5 pts | – | +3.8 | 783.6K | ||
| Texas | RGreg Abbott | Likely R | 76.5% | 76.8% | 75.5% | 2.0 pts | – | +0.6 | 3.0M | ||
| Alaska | DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | Likely D | 77.0% | 76.8% | 78.5% | 2.0 pts | – | −0.2 | 2.4M | ||
| Florida | RByron Donalds | Likely R | 78.7% | 79.5% | 78.5% | 1.0 pts | – | +1.2 | 3.6M | ||
| Wisconsin | DDavid Crowley | Likely D | 80.5% | 80.5% | 80.5% | 0.0 pts | – | −0.5 | 2.1M | ||
| Arizona | DKatie Hobbs | Likely D | 88.5% | 88.5% | 88.5% | 1.0 pts | – | +1.0 | 907.2K | ||
| Iowa | DRob Sand | Likely D | 89.4% | 89.0% | 89.5% | 0.5 pts | – | +0.9 | 2.1M |
Safe24 racesSafe DemocratSafe D 14Safe RepublicanSafe R 10
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | RJim Pillen | Safe R | 90.1% | 90.5% | 89.5% | 1.0 pts | – | +0.1 | 91.5K | ||
| Oklahoma | RMike Mazzei | Safe R | 90.5% | 90.5% | 90.5% | 0.8 pts | – | −2.0 | 269.0K | ||
| Tennessee | RMarsha Blackburn | Safe R | 92.0% | 92.5% | 92.0% | 0.7 pts | – | −2.8 | 157.6K | ||
| Alabama | RTommy Tuberville | Safe R | 93.5% | 93.6% | 93.4% | 0.9 pts | – | +1.7 | 187.1K | ||
| New Hampshire | RKelly Ayotte | Safe R | 93.7% | 93.2% | 94.4% | 1.3 pts | – | −0.1 | 252.9K | ||
| Michigan | DJocelyn Benson | Safe D | 93.8% | 95.0% | 93.5% | 1.6 pts | – | +1.2 | 731.5K | ||
| New Mexico | DDeb Haaland | Safe D | 94.1% | 94.5% | 94.1% | 0.4 pts | – | +0.5 | 173.6K | ||
| Maine | DHannah Pingree | Safe D | 94.2% | 94.8% | 94.0% | 1.2 pts | – | −1.1 | 139.1K | ||
| New York | DKathy Hochul | Safe D | 94.5% | 95.1% | 94.4% | 0.7 pts | – | −1.1 | 3.3M | ||
| South Carolina | RAlan Wilson | Safe R | 94.6% | 94.5% | 94.6% | 0.3 pts | – | 0.0 | 52.8K | ||
| Massachusetts | DMaura Healey | Safe D | 95.1% | 95.8% | 95.1% | 0.9 pts | – | −0.2 | 1.4M | ||
| Rhode Island | DHelena Foulkes | Safe D | 95.3% | 95.8% | 94.4% | 1.4 pts | – | −1.1 | 127.2K | ||
| Minnesota | DAmy Klobuchar | Safe D | 95.4% | 95.5% | 95.4% | 0.2 pts | – | +0.2 | 588.8K | ||
| California | DXavier Becerra | Safe D | 95.9% | 96.0% | 95.8% | 0.3 pts | – | −0.3 | 60.4M | ||
| Connecticut | DNed Lamont | Safe D | 96.2% | 96.7% | 96.2% | 0.5 pts | – | −0.3 | 63.9K | ||
| Arkansas | RSarah Huckabee Sanders | Safe R | 96.6% | 97.0% | 96.3% | 0.7 pts | – | 0.0 | 18.1K | ||
| Colorado | DPhil Weiser | Safe D | 96.8% | 96.6% | 96.8% | 0.2 pts | – | +0.1 | 197.6K | ||
| Illinois | DJB Pritzker | Safe D | 96.8% | 97.6% | 96.8% | 0.9 pts | – | −1.2 | 180.9K | ||
| Maryland | DWes Moore | Safe D | 97.1% | 97.6% | 97.0% | 0.8 pts | – | −1.3 | 90.4K | ||
| Idaho | RBrad Little | Safe R | 97.3% | 97.5% | 97.1% | 0.5 pts | – | −0.5 | 35.2K | ||
| Wyoming | REric Barlow | Safe R | 97.6% | 97.8% | 97.4% | 0.4 pts | – | +0.3 | 21.4K | ||
| South Dakota | RLarry Rhoden | Safe R | 97.6% | 97.5% | 97.7% | 0.6 pts | – | +0.8 | 36.6K | ||
| Pennsylvania | DJosh Shapiro | Safe D | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.8% | 0.3 pts | – | +0.8 | 832.4K | ||
| Hawaii | DJosh Green | Safe D | 98.7% | 99.2% | 98.6% | 0.6 pts | – | +0.5 | 28.7K |
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET · Sorted by TruthIndex™, closest race first · Volume combines Polymarket USD and Kalshi contracts