Senate 2026
35 seats on the ballot, including special elections in Florida and Ohio. Democrats are favored in 17 races, Republicans in 16; 2 are toss-ups.
How to read this chart
The bar holds every race on this page, grouped by rating. Each coloured block is one rating, and its width shows how many races have it. Democratic ratings are on the left, toss-ups in the middle and Republican ratings on the right; races led by neither party, or with no price, come last. The key below gives each count.
More in Methodology- Safe DemocratSafe D 11
- Likely DemocratLikely D 2
- Lean DemocratLean D 4
- Toss-up 2
- Lean RepublicanLean R 2
- Likely RepublicanLikely R 2
- Safe RepublicanSafe R 12
Balance of power
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https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/senate-balance/Democrats have a 63.8% chance to control the Senate on the TruthIndex™
Polymarket 64.5% · Kalshi 62.5% · 2.0 pts apart
How to read this chart
Each dot is one Senate seat. Dots on the left are races Democrats are favoured to win, and dots on the right are races Republicans are favoured to win. A strong colour means the market is confident about the winner; a pale colour means a closer race. Yellow dots in the middle are toss-ups, where no side has a 60% chance or more.
The faded dots at the two ends are seats that are not on the ballot in 2026. They still count toward each party's total. The dashed line marks control. Democrats need 51 seats. Republicans need 50, because the Vice President breaks a 50–50 tie. Select a dot to open that race.
More in Methodology- Democrats, not upD, not up 34
- Safe DemocratSafe D 11
- Likely DemocratLikely D 2
- Lean DemocratLean D 4
- Toss-up 2
- Lean RepublicanLean R 2
- Likely RepublicanLikely R 2
- Safe RepublicanSafe R 12
- Republicans, not upR, not up 31
Closest to call
Map
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https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/senate-map/How to read this chart
Each state is coloured by the rating of its Senate race. Blue means a Democrat leads and red means a Republican leads; the darker the shade, the more confident the market. Striped states are Lean (a 60% to 75% chance), and yellow states are toss-ups (under 60%). Purple marks a race led by a candidate from neither party, and grey states have no race this year.
The text on each state gives the leading party and its chance of winning. Use the slider or the play button to replay the past 60 days, and the source buttons to switch between the TruthIndex™ and each venue's own prices. Select a state to open its race.
More in MethodologyEvery race
Toss-up2 racesToss-up 2
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | RAshley Hinson | Toss-up | 57.1% | 58.5% | 56.5% | 3.0 pts | – | −0.4 | 6.4M | ||
| Maine | DTroy Jackson | Toss-up | 57.2% | 59.5% | 56.5% | 3.0 pts | – | −0.8 | 11.1M |
Lean6 racesLean DemocratLean D 4Lean RepublicanLean R 2
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | DJames Talarico | Lean D | 61.7% | 62.5% | 61.5% | 2.0 pts | – | −0.8 | 32.9M | ||
| Ohio (special) | DSherrod Brown | Lean D | 64.0% | 64.5% | 63.5% | 2.0 pts | – | +2.5 | 8.4M | ||
| Kansas | RRoger Marshall | Lean R | 64.1% | 63.5% | 64.5% | 2.0 pts | – | +2.1 | 4.5M | ||
| Michigan | DAbdul El-Sayed | Lean D | 68.5% | 68.5% | 68.5% | 2.0 pts | – | +1.0 | 9.1M | ||
| Nebraska | RPete Ricketts | Lean R | 73.2% | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 pts | – | +0.7 | 3.2M | ||
| Alaska | DMary Peltola | Lean D | 73.5% | 73.5% | 74.0% | 1.0 pts | – | 0.0 | 1.9M |
Likely4 racesLikely DemocratLikely D 2Likely RepublicanLikely R 2
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | RDarline Graham Nordone | Likely R | 85.5% | 85.5% | 85.5% | 1.0 pts | – | +0.5 | 4.0M | ||
| Minnesota | DPeggy Flanagan | Likely D | 86.7% | 87.5% | 86.5% | 1.0 pts | – | −0.3 | 2.4M | ||
| New Hampshire | DChris Pappas | Likely D | 89.2% | 88.5% | 89.5% | 2.0 pts | – | −0.1 | 2.4M | ||
| Mississippi | RCindy Hyde-Smith | Likely R | 89.5% | 90.5% | 89.0% | 1.5 pts | – | −3.1 | 611.4K |
Safe23 racesSafe DemocratSafe D 11Safe RepublicanSafe R 12
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | RKurt Alme | Safe R | 90.2% | 91.5% | 89.5% | 2.0 pts | – | −2.1 | 975.6K | ||
| South Dakota | RMike Rounds | Safe R | 91.2% | 91.9% | 91.0% | 0.9 pts | – | −1.8 | 373.2K | ||
| Florida (special) | RAshley Moody | Safe R | 91.4% | 90.5% | 91.5% | 1.0 pts | – | +0.7 | 1.6M | ||
| Louisiana | RJulia Letlow | Safe R | 93.6% | 93.5% | 93.8% | 0.3 pts | – | −0.2 | 148.8K | ||
| Arkansas | RTom Cotton | Safe R | 94.6% | 94.6% | 94.5% | 0.3 pts | – | +0.5 | 276.5K | ||
| Tennessee | RBill Hagerty | Safe R | 95.0% | 95.7% | 94.9% | 0.8 pts | – | +0.9 | 516.3K | ||
| North Carolina | DRoy Cooper | Safe D | 95.4% | 96.0% | 95.3% | 0.6 pts | – | −1.0 | 3.6M | ||
| Georgia | DJon Ossoff | Safe D | 95.4% | 96.2% | 95.3% | 0.8 pts | – | −0.6 | 2.1M | ||
| Idaho | RJim Risch | Safe R | 95.4% | 95.9% | 95.4% | 0.5 pts | – | +1.9 | 545.5K | ||
| Kentucky | RAndy Barr | Safe R | 96.7% | 96.8% | 96.5% | 0.4 pts | – | +0.5 | 232.1K | ||
| New Jersey | DCory Booker | Safe D | 96.8% | 97.0% | 96.8% | 0.4 pts | – | −1.1 | 150.2K | ||
| Oklahoma | RKevin Hern | Safe R | 97.0% | 97.0% | 97.0% | 0.6 pts | – | +0.2 | 71.0K | ||
| New Mexico | DBen Ray Luján | Safe D | 97.1% | 97.4% | 97.1% | 0.4 pts | – | −0.3 | 86.4K | ||
| Virginia | DMark Warner | Safe D | 97.8% | 98.0% | 97.7% | 0.5 pts | – | −0.3 | 59.3K | ||
| Alabama | RBarry Moore | Safe R | 97.8% | 96.8% | 98.2% | 1.4 pts | – | +0.2 | 26.4K | ||
| Oregon | DJeff Merkley | Safe D | 97.8% | 97.6% | 97.8% | 0.5 pts | – | −0.4 | 20.0K | ||
| Massachusetts | DEd Markey | Safe D | 98.0% | 98.2% | 98.0% | 0.4 pts | – | −0.3 | 100.9K | ||
| West Virginia | RShelley Moore Capito | Safe R | 98.0% | 98.1% | 98.0% | 0.7 pts | – | 0.0 | 45.2K | ||
| Illinois | DJuliana Stratton | Safe D | 98.4% | 98.6% | 98.4% | 0.2 pts | – | +0.4 | 55.5K | ||
| Delaware DDemocrat |
DDemocrat | Safe D | 98.4% | 97.7% | 98.6% | 0.9 pts | – | −0.5 | 59.9K | ||
| Rhode Island | DJack Reed | Safe D | 98.4% | 98.4% | 98.4% | 0.1 pts | – | +0.7 | 61.9K | ||
| Wyoming | RHarriet Hageman | Safe R | 98.5% | 98.4% | 98.5% | 0.3 pts | – | +0.2 | 45.4K | ||
| Colorado | DJohn Hickenlooper | Safe D | 98.8% | 98.8% | 98.8% | 0.5 pts | – | +0.6 | 84.7K |
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET · Sorted by TruthIndex™, closest race first · Volume combines Polymarket USD and Kalshi contracts