Where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree

Each dot is one contest. The further right a dot sits, the more confident the market is about the leader; the higher it sits, the further apart Polymarket and Kalshi price it. Bigger dots carry more trading, and hollow dots carry little, so their gaps say less.

Dots above the dashed line are 3 points or more apart and take the leading party's colour. The yellow zone holds close races, where the leader is under 60%. The two dark bars show the median gap in two groups. The left bar covers close races. The right bar covers races where the leader has 80% or more. Select a dot to open the contest.

The line is the median gap for each day. Half the contests priced on both venues are closer than this, and half are further apart. The green band holds the middle half of contests, so a narrower band means more contests agree closely.

A line heading toward zero means the two venues are pricing races more alike as the election nears. The dashed line marks a 3-point gap for scale. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read each day's figures.